Shopping behavior and the Prisoner's Dilemma
"Tim, having adequate preparations for an emergency, which one should always be prepared for, even before the attack, is different than living in fear and avoiding the mall. Regards, Amy J "
You know nothing about whether I am living in fear, or whether I am advising others to live in fear. You know nothing about my psychological state. As for avoiding malls, I generally do in the best of times. You and Mary have both speculated inappropriately on what you think is my psychological motivation. Some kind of chick thing, I guess.
Facts are what they are. The consumer _had_ been holding up the economy, as every analyst pointed out. Well, that support crumbled as quickly as the towers did. Flying stopped that day, and still hasn't come back. Disneyland is a ghost town, hotels are laying-off staff, trade conventions are being cancelled left and right, and people aren't buying.
Americans are avoiding flying if they can...many can. They are choosing not to buy SUVs and MiniVans at this time if they can...apparently many can. In general, they're not in a "normal" or "shopping" mood. And obviously most of them were not "buying patriotically" in the stock market last week.
Is this "living in fear"? Or prudence in uncertain times?
Seems to me obvious that this is a time for thinking about what has happened, what could still happen, and what needs to be done. Psychobabblers would call it a "time for healing." Not a time for luxury spending.
It's hilarious to see folks here in this group wring their hands that people are not out _SHOPPING_! ("They need to help the economy! They need to buy stuff!")
The 1000 or so sleeper agents are likely to launch a different form of attack for Round Two. What form this take is anyone's guess. But it looks likely that the sleepers are not going to just roll over and go back to sleep. They may be waiting to attack until after the U.S. hits Afghanistan, they may be waiting for Yom Kippur, they may understand the psychological value of waiting, and waiting.
Is the average American at risk? Actuarially, no, of course not. I don't personally fear being killed in such an attack..the odds are slight for any particular person, even airline pilots and stewardesses. But the _effects_ of a successful Round Two, whether biological or dams being blown or whatever, would be enormous: more paralysis, another 2000 point drop on the Dow, and so on. These are the effects to worry about.
Many Americans apparently sense this. This is why they're sticking closer to home, avoiding flying, and not buying stuff unless they really need it. (One analyst on ABC said she never thought she'd see the day when people were lining up at K-Mart to buy guns. She said this may be one of the new hot areas in the economy: buy a gun instead of buying Junior his third or fourth videogame console.)
It may be hell on the economy, but it's a perfectly rational behavior for any particular person or family to follow. Game theory and the Prisoner's Dilemma, which I'm sure you're all familiar with.
--Tim May |
