Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (2071)	9/24/2001 11:11:29 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 36161

Jim L... re: dabbling long I think that there are some sizeable DCB trading opps - in the pause before the storm... literally. But, the RISK present here; at these still historically high valuations is simply too much in most circumstances. Imho - this is NOW an ENTIRELY speculative market environment in all but the best of the best value plays & those are an average in - play here.... I still see DOW sub 7,000 and low 5,000ish before this is all over, will NOT be a surprise to me personally. If anyone has their life savings/401K's/ IRA's etc heavilly weighted to stocks here... you have to address the reality of what "1 lunatic terrorist - with a single 4" glass test tube" - can do to the American psyche & in return, the US and Global markets... the here-to-for unthinkable; just became thinkable... but, that's not even the fundamental negative driver here imo... it's that no one is thinking about the economic ripple effect that the WTC tragedy will have on the US economy, let alone the coming "War" effort and they are also greatly minimizing the effect of what an unprecedented GLOBAL recession is going to do to market multiples... it was, is and will continue to be a story of Irrationally Exhuberant valuations - period. ... and if "this" new pardigm/post WTC environment doesn't compress market multiples; what is yet to come; will... This is clearly a time to protect & preserve capital - period. ... no heroic's, no reckless falling knife hero plays... merely go defensive & cash - period. Sit this one out folks... it's a fools game. The Street gamed Mr. & Mrs. Main St on round I here; by playing the "faux Patriotism" card and then selling the market out from under them... this Prop-Job rally that will be imo; unfortunately followed by "reality-check part deux" in this war on terrorism; will be the 2nd round that they take Mr. & Mrs. Main St out on... This is going to be a historic "Transfer of Wealth" (remember that term folks, we'll be talking about it 20 years from now)... the Rubinites got Middle America to buy into this Bubble hook, line & sinker - literally...there is going to be a huge growing dependance on Government as a result...and the unemployment ramp is just starting - we've only seen the tip of the unemployment/layoff/cutback iceberg imo... tic - toc ~ PS...added some NEM here fwiw.

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