Copper Price Rise Delayed After U.S. Terror Attacks, AME Says
2001-09-23 20:57 (New York)
Copper Price Rise Delayed After U.S. Terror Attacks, AME Says
Sydney, Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices, which have
fallen 28 percent in the past year, will not begin to recover
until mid next year as the metals' outlook remains flat after
the terrorist attacks in the U.S., AME Mineral Economics said.
The Sydney-based commodities research firm expects
economic recovery to start in the second half of 2002 and
copper demand to ``quickly bounce back.'' The price its
forecast to reach an average $1,850 a ton by 2006 from $1,428
Friday, it said in a statement.
``The U.S. economy entered this new crisis in an already
very fragile condition,'' AME said. ``Further marked
contractions in consumer confidence and discretionary spending
are now unavoidable. We believe the U.S. will remain in
recession until the third quarter of 2002.''
Major copper producers, including BHP Billiton and Anglo
American Plc, the two biggest miners, will start delaying new
projects in Chile, Brazil and elsewhere if there aren't clear
signs of economic recovery within the next year, the firm's
report said.
Most of the expected growth in production over the next
five years will come from Central and South America,
particularly Chile, which will produce more than 30 percent of
the world's annual supply of copper concentrates, or partly
processed ore, by 2006, AME said.
Copper ``demand in the USA was down over 10 percent in the
first half of 2001, with usage in Japan and Europe around 4.5
percent lower,'' the report said. Copper has been trading at or
near two-year lows for the past two months.
By the time demand starts growing, in the second half of
2002, copper inventories will be at ''high levels, exceeding
two months' supply,'' it said. ``It may take another year or
two before they run down to comfortable levels.''
--Stephen Wisenthal in Brisbane (617) 3857-3026, or at
swisenthal@bloomberg.net, through the Sydney newsroom/kg |
