The problem with testing the markets is that buyers are so hungry with their 3 trillion dollars on the sidelines that they jump in with both feet when the market turns even a little. This serves to thwart the whole capitulation thing. To have true capitulation, small time buyers must not want back in at any price. This way, only the biggest players start accumulating, without fear of the markets moving up too fast. . .before they can close their deals.
Our study on the HOME board of the "VIX As Leading Indicator Of Trend Reversal" has indicated that as of this past Friday, the trends have indeed changed and that we are in store for some recovery moving forward. Strong volume, A/D line, momentum, FED adding to liquidity, etc. . . all on side of bulls.
Only thing left on side of bears moving forward is expected poor earnings reports in October. . . still a force to be reckoned with. . . and will probably take down the markets again in October, as gloom and doomers spread fear of "global economic meltdown", etc. . . .however, after this scare in October, I feel we are mostly out of the water for the LONGER term. . . as I told the DayRaiders chat group, I am taking off that bear suit at last. . . .tired of the fleas.
My only fear moving forward is the trickle down of the airline industry becoming a meltdown instead. . .but I don't anticipate that happening. The FED is on top of things more than I have ever seen before. And there is an interesting desire by Americans I've spoken with to get back to BUSINESS in a bigger way than ever before.
So far, I believe that most CEO's are being patient with the current uncertainty. . . and not so eager to pull the trigger to slow things down. Could it be they learned a thing or two since December?
I like that people will return home from work tonight to find the markets up sharply from Friday. If nothing else, that must contribute to sentiment moving forward. Americans will cling to any hope you give them. And the markets are no exception.
GE up 13%
EMC up 15%
Dell up 11%
INTC up 10%
ORCL up 14%
SUNW up 9%
JDSU up 17%
GLW up 10%
Definitely some jockeying for position out there this afternoon. But looking at the closing numbers, this is the sort of day that, if nothing else, restores some hope in long-term investors. And that commodity has been in short supply of late.
Rande Is
[small excerpt from our HOME board home.insighters.com ] |
