SEP 24 INDEX UPDATE
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The NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL status is over, unless the indices immediately set LOWER LOWs tomorrow.
Short-term technical reading:
DOW - lower midrange
SPX - lower midrange
OEX - lower midrange
NAZ - lower midrange, MORNING STAR
NDX - lower midrange, MORNING STAR
VIX - lower midrange(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = negative 145
I mentioned earlier the possibility of a 3-DAY PATTERN. These patterns are specificly based off of my CLASS 1 signals. There are 2 possible patterns for the 3 days of the pattern:
UP - UP - FLAT/DOWN
UP - FLAT/SLIGHTLY DOWN - UP
These 3-DAY PATTERN have a better success rate if they are in the direction of the trend, which unfortunately is not the case right now.
Also, I have never had a 3-DAY PATTERN arrive after a NEGATED CLASS 1 SIGNAL before, so that could also change the probabiity.
Im a bit surprised that the the VIX is already approaching the oversold region(inverse to the market), which is giving me a hint that this rally may not last too long - maybe only 1-2 more days if that much. On the other hand I wont make too much of that VIX reading since it could just be a simple oscillation in a downswing in the VIX(upswing in the market).
As mentioned often previously, I am expecting a retest, unless there is some outside event that is so positive to support a rally without retesting. Im not guessing what type of news would be the powerful.
An important positive for me is that strong improvement in the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs, where it improve over 500 points. If it continues to improve, that would be bullish, but still would not be enough to totally negate the possibility of a retest, unless it became a moon-shot.
If there is a retest, which I am expecting, I will be looking for positive divergences in the technical indicators which basicly show that the selling is not as intense. If such occurs, then that would be viable hints that an important bottom is being established. |
