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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (8613)9/25/2001 1:52:06 PM
From: Wowzer  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
Kodiak, you talk of the inventory build debacle of 97 to 98, was it really that much of an inventory build? I remember there sure were a lot of missing barrels calculated in the inventory. Those 300 million + missing barrels never did show up when the price started to increase. So either supply was grossly overstated or demand was grossly understated during that time. Most likely a combination of both.

Right now I think the media is over playing the demand fall off to the max. Just like they overplayed the energy crisis back in May. Plus the market is taking out a lot of the investors who bought right after the attack hoping to make a quick buck. Yes air travel is down, but things will start to get back to normal. Americans can only sit around for so long and once the bombs and start falling. Investors will start getting nervous about supply all over again.

OXY around 20 has massive support and pays a great dividend now yielding over 4% With a much improved balance sheet since 1998/99. XOM is rock solid here, can not see it going lower then 30 worst case, dividend is not bad at 2.5%

SDC no debt and now trading under 20 for the first time since 1999. Maybe it goes to 15 on a panic sell off if you are so lucky.

TDW same no debt, strong balance sheet now trading close to 99 and 98 lows. Worst case touches 20.

RIG now in the mid 20's? I guess all deep sea drilling in done.

Plus you have a ton of the smaller players that have been crushed. But right now I am starting to buy the above. Because that is where the funds will come back to first.
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