SEPT 25 INDEX UPDATE
-------------------------
DOW - midrange
SPX - midrange
OEX - midrange
NAZ - midrange
NDX - midragne
SOX - lower midrange
VIX - BORDERLINE CLASS 2 BUY(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = negative 153
MIDRANGE READINGs already, but what is bothering me now a bit more is that my VIX reading is aready a BORDERLINE CLASS 2 BUY(inverse to market). If tomorrow is up nicely, the VIX will hit a CLASS 1 BUY implying that selling in the indices could start as early as THUR. As mentioned previously, this CLASS 1 in the VIX could also just be a down oscillation within an up-swing in the market, Regardless, if the market is up/flat tomorrow, I will be cautious on the long side and may close/hedge my longs.
As mentioned previously, we have a possible 3-DAY PATTERN (UP-FLAT-UP) in the process. But what is important to realise about this possible 3-DAY PATTERN is that it is against the trend therefore it has a lesser chance of succeeding. If this 3-DAY PATTERN is successful, I would interpret that with some bullishness, since it was able to succeed against the trend. If that was to occur, I would subjectively consider that as a hint that the possible forthcoming retest may be successful (within the 7% buffer). If this 3-DAY PATTERN fails, that would support the arguement that the downtrend is still intact. I'm not going to guess whether the 3-DAY PATTERN succeeds or fails, but will review the results as one hint for the direction of the market.
I am not impressed with the performance of the SOX, since per my short-term technicals it is lagging the NAZ/NDX(specificly talking about the short-term technicals not price movement). As we all know, the SOX has been a reliable leading indicator for the NAZ/NDX, so unless the SOX can pick up some steam, Im will suspect that the NAZ/NDX could weaken quickly.
Although the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs only declined slightly, it would have been better that it remained flat or improve. I will be watching the NAZ NEW HI-LOs carefully, and if there is weakness while the NAZ/NDX is up, I would consider that as a negative.
The NAZ/NDX/SPX/OEX all touched their OCT 1998 LOWs, but the DOW was still about 300+ points above its OCT 1998 LOWs. One possible senerio is that the DOW may touch its OCT 1998 LOWs on the possible retest, which could push the NAZ/NDX/SPX/OEX lower to some degree. Heard on CNBC that many of the foreign markets have already touched their OCT 1998 LOWs; therefore some are of the opinion that the DOW may need to also. That subjective opinion is not out of line, so it does have some merit. I didnt say it would happen for sure, but I would definitely not ignore that possibility. If that happens, I just hope that the NAZ/NDX/SPX/OEX do not exceed the recent lows by more than 7%. If they do exceed the recent lows by 7% to the downside, that would be considered a FAILED RETEST and that the downtrend is still intact.
If the NAZ/NDX is FLAT/UP tomorrow and the SOX is still lagging and the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWS are only so-so, or worse, I will be closing/hedging my UOPIX(long-NDX) positions. If the NAZ/NDX is down and there is no significant deterioration in the market internals/SOX, then I may hold my longs. Of course if the NAZ/NDX are down and there are signs of deterioration in the HI-LOs/SOX, guess what I will be doing.
ABBEY J. COHEN recently recommended again to go long right now. My question is ABBEY is what is how much is GOLDMAN SACHS buying right now, or are they getting ready to SELL or already selling? Dont forget the ABBEY J. COHEN 3-DAY INDICATOR.gggggggg |
