I'm not sure that any of the Arab dictatorships are likely to become democracies (prickly or not) soon.
Exactly my point. Support the dictator, allow him to drive out all moderate opposition, and ultimately the only ones left opposing him will be the extremists ready to face death. And history recently has shown us that these guys often win... and they may not be best friends with the funder of their oppressor
It's hard to tell your pet Shah, or Noriega, or whatever, that if he doesn't back off NOW you're going to take away all his toys - and enforce that. It's embarrassing, for one thing... suddenly the whole world finds out about some nasty secrets about what you've been doing. You don't have free rein for covert ops, or destabilising neighbours; maybe your military bases cost more; and short-term, you won't still win many friends.
If OTOH you start out by encouraging the growth of a middle class, you get a class keen on its own freedom - on education, improvement, trade, and stability; with a stake to preserve, rather than nothing to lose; and from this, history seems to be telling us that you evolve a democracy. Even if that means not allowing your pet to wipe out trade unionists and awkward dissidents and other people you don't much like on the way: opposition is part of being a democracy. Even if it means tolerating a government that once created may grow up and criticise you - hey, isn't that the fate of parents anyway? They probably won't attack you, either: when was the last time two Western-style democracies fought each other? |
