MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (8659)	9/26/2001 12:37:29 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 19219

Hi JT; I plugged in the TA to Nav = shares bought sold up to the 25th and found the Low TA on the 21st did not create a bearish level in Nova or Otc that was as extreme as the TA alone would indicate. Some capitulation but the Rydex traders didn't dump as many shares as the TA might have people think; the TA fall was more because of the drop in NAV than the exit of the Funds. Still it does say the 21st should be a short term bottom, longer term I can't say; at least not yet. ----------------- Beyond Rydex most of the selling has been "institutions" and I'm not like many others who think "institutions" are always smart money. Also I discovered a new trading system a lot of institutions are using to make very large block trades out of sight of the regular markets. But only registered institutions can see and trade on it, this seems to add to the difficulty of making sense out of the traditional short term TA based on volume and price. ---------------- Today's early morning volume of key stocks was to the down side & in spite of an up open it said we would likely end down today. However that won't surprise me after the very strong up day Monday. ---------------- Was Monday a flag ? It's to soon to say but it did have the number one criteria. "Volume" No 2 will be Flags drop to half mast in the next 2 to 4 days.; No 3 is the second surge after it goes to half mast That's the one I really want to see, and for it to give a signal that the Flag is for real; the second surge has to be an up day of over 2% and that must also happen on very good volume. ( volume both over the 50day Avg volume and also more volume than the day before it ). ----------------- If the second surge happens on weak volume it's just shorts taking profits; the high volume is needed to indicate a fight between the bears/bulls with the bulls winning. ----------------- Beyond all of this TA the best indicator I see going forward is the drop in Oil prices , it will take that to turn the bear off. I would love to see Crude drop below $20 for a while. -------------------- With today's pull back I hope the VIX will get back above 40. Best Regards Jim

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