How I idle myself at times like these:
1)try hard to understand how and why the situation developed to become what we see today. (DONE)
2) Then, when I am satisfied with my answers, I think what it will ben needed to get rid of the hangover. (Half Done)
3) Next, I plot a course of action which shows the most likely way this will develop into the future. (90% Done)
4) At last I position myself to live through this next cycle. (75% Done, ready to reposition)
5) Move, step back to change the perspective and see if there is something I am not seeing (start next week)
(Because I live out of the telecoms market all those steps are made under the telecoms perspective) I am now secure of my understanding of how this has to come to be what we see today.
Why the situation (in telecoms) is like we see today? The fact is: no Venture Capitalist had a long term interest in the telecom companies to operate as viable enterprises. They were just pumping hot air in the firms to get them attractive to a buyer. (look to Marconi and CLECs) VC act was not much than make a quick buck and run.
(Too many unexperienced people with money helped) It was just build, market-blitz and get rid of it. This worked -when the going was good- for many ventures that ended up bought by overvalued stocks. It was an action among friends: CSCO guys were seating at boards of those new formed -incubation- companies.
In the post collapse I try to get an understanding of what will take to digest all that eaten during the bubble years. Companies which most likely fold, (Marconi), the ones that can't survive alone, (LU, MOT, NT, ERICY) or that will morph into something else (NOK, Siemens and NEC)
Then I plot the course of action based in a scenario:
Message 16383555
After done all that, I look around and try to see where is the hole in the wall through which I can 'tunnel' to other side, (like I am doing with my plan) before the hole is too wide that everyone is jumping through or there are too many guys already over the wall eating at the table.
After done that I don't have too much to do but fine-tune all those steps. Now I use Jay's idea: Be useful, get paid, keep contacts of good quality, try hearing above the noise, do not enter in dead roads. |
