The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: MSI who wrote (879)	9/27/2001 11:09:37 AM
From: Tom Gordon	Read Replies (2) of 306849

Hi MSI, This recession we are in will undoubtedly result in a more long and deeper scenario. Don't look for any V-shaped bottom soon.No economy in this world will be spared as GDP growth world wide will shrink to appox. 1% in 2001. The US is still facing a myriad of problems, excess capacity, a massive current acc. deficit and an over-extended consumer all of which will not go away after the WTC debacle. The coming deflationary shock coming will far surpass the one of 1998 as world inflation decelerates rapidly because of declining aggregate demand will be in excess of any curtailments to aggregate supply of goods. Stagflation will only result if oil prices rise significantly, the fundamental engine for stagflation would be a full indexation of wage rates relative to inflation. I personally MSI, don't see a shortage of goods and services as this economy continues to rapidly contract and layoff workers because of the rampant dwindling of demand currently unfolding. Shrinking stock capitalizations are reflecting this also. Regards,Tom.

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