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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (8739)9/27/2001 3:24:15 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (4) of 23153
 
"Why late spring for an economic restart ?

1) Income tax refunds - people getting laid off now will have big refunds.

2) Recent intrerest rate cuts & liguid increases will start to show up all over the economy in about 6 months.

3) I think it takes time for people to digest events. After about six months of feeling down and fearfull, the will be a swing back.

4) Spring & more daylight will make peole feel optimistic.

5) I expect the Christmas retail season to be a mess, and this will ahve negative effect for at least three months.

6) I expect year end bonuses in to be far smaller than ususual, and that will be a drag until tax returns put money in peoples pockets.

7) Lower gasoline, heating oil and natural gas prices will get to the consumer by January, and the lower prices will have cummulative positive effect throught the winter months.
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