SEPT 27 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - overbought region
SPX - borderline CLASS 2 SELL
OEX - borderline CLASS 2 SELL
NAZ - midrange, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI
NDX - midrange, imperfect DRAGONFLY DOJI
SOX - oversold, intraday CLASS 2 BUY, HAMMER
VIX - borderline CLASS 1 BUY(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = negative 380
On the DOW/SPX/OEX, my short-term readings are about 2 days away from CLASS 1 SELL signals, if the market continues up. So I could get CLASS 1 SELLs in those indices as soon as MON.
The NAZ/NDX today retested last weeks closing lows. Before I get excited about a retest, I would be more comfortable on calling a retest if the overall market is retesting at the same time, which is not the case since the DOW/SPX/OEX are nowhere near a retest. So maybe we can call this a mini-retest on the NAZ/NDX. Regardless, lets look at this possible retest in the NAZ/NDX. Last week when the NAZ/NDX set those lows the NAZ NET NEW HI-LOs were in the NEGATIVE 700 region. With the retest in price today the HI-LOs were at NEGATIVE 380. Is this a positive divergence? Again, Im not going to make too much of it since I would have been more comfortable with a market wide retest and that my short-term technicals are already nearing CLASS SELL territory on the DOW/SPX/OEX, but having said that - I will not ignore the possibility and will be watching it carefully.
Hopefully, I got it right. "SELL on ROSH HASHANNA - BUY on YOM KIPPUR", and today was YOM KIPPUR. Also we have the "END-OF-MONTH-RALLY" which is also end of quarter, and we have the FOMC meeting on MONDAY(?). So there are some seasonal/timing issues which may help promote a rally for a few days.
Unfortunately the SOX did set a lower low on a intraday basis at 344, and closed at 362. So the SOX did spike below the very important support line at 350 which goes all the way back to late 1998 thru mid 1999. So is this just a simple overshoot or a hint of something negative to come? Unfortunately, Im more inclined to say its a negative for the future. If the SOX breaks below 350 cleanly, the next major support is around 190 which were the OCT 1998 LOWs for the SOX. If the SOX does break below 350 cleanly and approach 190, that would definitely push the NDX to break the recent 1100 lows, and may be enough to push the NDX towards the 700 region. I did not say for sure that it will get that low, just giving a possible senerio.
For the very short-term, the SOX did form a HAMMER off of an intraday CLASS 2 BUY signal, so it is quite possible to see some follow-thru in the SOX. |
