Hi ep,
Some very interesting speculations on your part.
Last item first. We ain't Japan. We don't have the same demographic characteristics. Demographics are fate. Japan is probably toast. Unless there is a complete attitude adjustment there. Unlikely.
The American economy has very often been compared to a supertanker. Hard to change speed or course. When the engines revved in the run-up to an 8% GDP growth in late '99 or early '00, this was simply the thrust of the monetary stimulus of late '98, "animal spirits" and momentum leading the economy into a trap of monumental proportions. Misinvestment, euphoria and extravagance were the order of the day. No mas. Now the supertanker has changed course, changed its rate of propulsion and is miring itself on the shoals. Sept. 11 is when we finally got beyond any shadow of a doubt in anyone's mind. Now, all that is left is the cheerleading. The hollow calls of our President to visit Disneyland. Demonstrating an acute lack of national purpose as we face up to the reality that we've entered an ephemeral war with an enemy who's a phantom, who we can't find or touch, because he plays the game by unearthly rules. It's a time for us to reflect upon what game it is that we are trying to win. And if this is the game that is worthy of our attention. In the meantime, the markets will languish. They'll seem insipid, immoral, boring and pointless in growing waves of revulsion as people seek meaning in their lives. Our President is promoting visiting Disneyworld as a cure for the destruction of the epicenter of capitalism? Wow. What have we come to?
It's going to take a while for all of us to get our bearings, again. It ain't gonna happen by the time the corn gets planted again in Iowa. I can pretty well guarantee that.
-Ray |
