Ken,
re: "Global: Global Recession -- Longer and Deeper, Stephen Roach "
This article, unlike many I've read recently contains a viewpoint that is backed up with some hard data. I don't necessarily agree w/the conclusions of Mr Roach, but I'm not convinced that he is drawing conclusions that are all that dire.
Sure, globalization of the world's trade and commerce holds challenges. Sure, it always has. Yes, there have been conflicts over the last century which have involved the countries expanding and competing in global markets. Yes, globalization has continued to grow at an accelerated rate from the advent of British Colonialism (19th century) through the WTO today.
Yes, there continue to be "winners" and "losers" in the world. Every now and then the civilized world gets a wake-up call from the have-nots.
Will it be a challenge to bring the middle east into the modern world? Yes, without a doubt. Will it be done overnight? No.
Taking all of this into consideration, there is nothing forboding about what Mr. Roach terms "Globalization's haunting past".
Tribalism and Islamic Fundamentalism have little going for them. Aside from bravado, fervor, and ancient belief systems/ancient customs they have, by definition, no organization, little infrastructure, no form of governance, no productive capacity, little need for universal education.
Furthermore, the civilized world is bending over backwards to fund, educate, and promote capitalism and economic growth all over the world. It's an investment for the future of the planet. No one wants an educated population more than our high-tech industry.
This highly-accelerated movement of globalization into the middle east is really what is causing this reflexive response from the tribalists. They are losing control over their own people at an alarming rate and they know it.
Islamic clerics would love to stop the march of history so they can maintain their own control and hegemony over their world. Unfortunately for them, they haven't seen any movement in that direction.
As a postscript I would like to say this: one of the most steadfast allies in this cultural war will turn out to be middle eastern women themselves. Remove them from the oppressive societies of Islam and Islam collapses.
Don't roll your eyes just yet, this is actually being done. There are international feminist movements who are funding the removal of women from the middle eastern countries most oppressing them. They are brought to the west and educated. It takes time and effort. But the battle against ignorance is won one saved life at a time.
Now isn't the time to get depressed about the world. It's time for action to fix the problems and move ahead.... It's in every investor's interest to do so. Let the economists analyze and quantify. The world is made up of PEOPLE not numbers. |
