re: Were you inspired by Cary or is this a strategy you have often used in the past?
In the past, I have tried to time the bottom, taking my entire position at once, with mixed results. In 1998, I caught the precise bottom with AMAT, and made my first million on the LEAPs I bought then. Since then, I've decided that was luck, and I've become more sceptical of my own abilities. Yes, I've adopted Cary's methods (incremental buys and sells), as a method that works if an investor can predict the bottom (and top) only very, very approximately. Which, IMO, is a realistic assessment of my skills.
Templeton is someone to pay attention to. I am agnostic on this question (whether the Bear in cyclical or secular). I'm leaning toward cyclical, but I still intend on selling the next rally, as I've been doing all year. At least get off margin :) |
