Thanks for your kind words. For the Naz, you will probably have to define it as a bear rally, but I expect it to be quite lengthy (apart of a relapse late this year), maybe into 2003, but not reach new high before we succumb to the consequences of the current stimulus the economy will get. Furthermore, the initial trust may not be as vigorous as the post January 3rd and post April fourth rallies, at least not until early next year. In April we had a 40% bounce in the Naz from bottom to top, while from the recent bottom, in the next three months the best I have is 28% (or to 1793 on the Naz before a elapse in October), but the following leg should get us to 2250 during the first quarter, or about 50% from what I expect right now to be the December lows around 1500 (just where we are now).
The Dow, on the other hand, might have a chance at a marginal new high in the next two years and people will be talking about the great new bull market, just when they should run for the hills again, but that is a long way off yet.
Of course, the turnips reserve the right to be wrong, change their mind and change it often (g).
Zeev |
