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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Bruce Brown who wrote (47267)9/29/2001 2:44:25 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
that article is an object lesson in data mining. if he'd analyzed further back than 35 years ago, he would have found his model stopped working (like in the 1950s and 40s, when bond yields were lower than dividends, or in the 30s, when inflation was negative), so he picked a convenient stopping place. Malkiel should really be embarassed. also, he admits in the article he does not know the market is at a 22 PE, so his input could be complete garbage (GIGO). more likely IMHO is 30-33 dollars of reported income next year, giving the market a forward PE of 31 to 35. but at least his article is not as pathetic as the barron's piece last week, which overtly uses a forward earnings estimate of $55 that even wall street jokers would be ashamed to claim as their own (with a straight face).
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