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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks

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To: David Culver who wrote (1581)	9/29/2001 9:06:33 PM
From: Lorne Larson	Read Replies (1) of 11633

APF and ARC are the only two remaining trusts which have not recently decreased their monthly distributions. As was pointed out by Tommy D on this site ARC announced in their August press release that oil at $26.90 ($U.S.) and NG at $4.19 (CDN) would NOT be sufficient to support continued distributions of .20/mo. We're now way below these amounts - particularly on the NG side. My guess is that ARC is looking at .15/mo, and possibly, as Tommy D indicated, even as low as .10/mo. Depends how much ARC wants to deviate from its policy of utilizing a portion of its cash flow to fund capital expenditures, and instead utilize these amounts to maintain a higher dividend. In August ARC was trading at $12.48, now around $10.50. The question is whether the certain cut in distributions has been fully discounted. I think not - looking for ARC to tumble when next distribution is announced in a couple of weeks. PWI and VKR (.17 and .13 distributions) may give a hint where ARC is headed, although ARC has always traded at a premium to the other trusts - the institutions like it. As for APF, this is one of my favorite trusts. Moved to an oil weighting at the same time that all the others were madly pursuing over-priced NG acquisitions. However I expect next distribution to be around .17. Stock price should drop to $8.00-$9.00. I dumped all of my APF last week. It'll be the first one I'll buy back.

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