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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (126356)	9/30/2001 1:22:32 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 436258

I found it elsewhere without a password. A huge drop in both short and long positions? Huh what gives. Lee was asking the same question as me. I have a theory after his question. Comments on this appreciated. This is from Lee ========================================== I am trying to make sense of this drop in shorts. This could be a normal covering and slow attempt to get long but they dropped the number of total contracts decreasing longs and shorts thus they are reducing their exposure over all. Is this just uncertainty? I have to wonder if there is something else at play. Call me morbid or what you want but when I was watching the WTC disaster on TV and seeing all those papers flying around, I told my wife that there were people , including me, that would love to see those pieces of paper as they probably had the positions and plans of the top wall street firms on them since many if not most had offices there. I wonder if the sudden drop in positions by the commercials are being closed since there is a risk that large positions by specific firms could become general knowledge as these papers are found. I saw on CNN where people were taking them as souvineers. How long before someone looks at one and sees that Goldman Sachs had Abbey screaming buy and "we are over weight tech" yet the sheet of paper says soon as they roll her out on CNBC, short 5 million shares of various tech stocks along with NDX futures. -gggggg- The COT report shows they are lowering exposure but at the same time getting less short. Either we are about to do another 4 April squirt up or they are just trying to get flat since their hands may now be open to the public or it is just uncertainty and they are pulling back to reassess. Heck if I know for sure which of the three. The non tech stuff looked the best on my charts and the NASDAQ stuff still isn't real pretty so if they are about to ramp tech, it will have me scratching my head. The only bullish signs I see is the NDX sitting on my mid tine of the 1994 fork. Most other stuff however is just floating in no man's land. Each sector has taken it's turn behind the wood shed with RFMD and BRCD finally taking their turns this week. About the only sectors and stocks left now are QCOM type stuff. I still think we don't hit a lasting bottom until QCOM is down around 18 bucks a share. Every stock that seemed immune has eventually gave into the selling rotation. MU finally broke which was a relief as I couldn't understand what was holding that POS up. Now if QCOM would just get to a reasonable level, we might be able to base and eventually get a lasting rally going. I have been noticing that after talking about it for months, others are finally moving into dividend stocks. REITs and trusts are finally back in favor which is a good sign. SOme higher yielding banks are being bought also. I am still seeing a lot of flight to safety however in the food stocks. Who would have though QUIZ would be a top performer this year and why didn't I buy CAKE two days ago? -gggg- Good Luck, Lee ======================================================================== My reply Lee - I believe there is a simple reason. VIX is incredibly high. They intend to unwind their positions, with the help of the PPT, more or less pin stocks to these levels right now and keep things in a tight stability range. Why would anyone want options in that scenario. The PPT will support the indexes and they will ramp up on light volume enough to cover any fund outflows. Time premium on all existing options will dry up and the crooks selling equity options win big. That is my scenario. I suppose they can keep this stategy up for a few weeks. They kept it going for most of May June and July. Propping up IBM MSFT MU QCOM INTC CSCO and all the other big index component crap and favorites like semi-equips and MU for a mammoth distribution process. Note - If you believe stocks will stay flat for a while, selling options rather than buying them would be a good thing. Note All they have to do to achieve stability is prop up MSFT CSCO INTC QCOM EBAY. Not sure of the last one but the top 5 stocks make up 25% of the index of 100. How is that for nonsense. I think we need a reweighting. MSFT IBM MMM and a hadful of other crap makes up a huge portion of the DOW. 30 stocks are easier to prop up than 5000. M

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