You know, Math, you and I seem to be "apples and oranges" on how to play this market, and, I think we analyze it, we will find out why.
Lets use your buy of SEBL as an example. You went long at 13 with a goal of 15 to 20. That means you are looking at a short term return of 13% to 53% on SEBL. What I see is:
1)A weak 2B market
2) A PE that is still too high
3) A crisis situation in flux
4) A "Gut" that says SEBL is much more likely to go down to 10 than up to 13.
5) A "Gut" that the market is flat, to down, to possible sell off to a 1200 NAZ. (On this point, we can both gather reams of evidence that the market is going either way.)
Remember, SEBL only went up 0.2% Friday while the NAZ was going up 2.6%. That does not indicate much strength. And Tom Siebel is bad-mouthing his own company every time he is quoted. Plus a downgrade last week by Suntrust.
The "Spread" Friday on SEBL was 97 cents, which is about 7% of what it opened at. That is a little less than I like to play with for a day trade. Brocade's was a 1.19, only 8%, but a little easier to clip 34 cents on, which is one of the reasons I day-traded it Friday.
My play on SEBL, if I make one, will be a short at 14 with a cover at 12, with the idea that I could close it out in a week. I would stop at 16 for now, and lower that stop down.
This is the kind of discussion I would like to have on this thread. The fact that you and I are looking though opposite ends of the same Telescope is fine. That is what makes the market move! |
