Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 259.08

-4.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (53448)	9/30/2001 1:46:40 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 70976

I need help: Ken Fisher's prediction made in spring has come true. The bear continues. He's still bearish. One of his statements drives me nuts because I do not understand the reasoning. >As detailed in my Apr. 3, 2000 column entitled "Break Their Crystal Balls," and this May 14 in "Fall Till the Fall," the middle of the range of professional forecasts never comes true. The reason is that the market is a discounter of all known information. Professionals as a group have access to a body of information that is pretty complete. Hence what they can agree on must already be discounted into market pricing and can't happen.< Full article forbes.com Why can't consensus happen? What about self-fulfilling prophecy? I can agree with "what they can agree on must already be discounted into market pricing" but not with "can't happen". Gottfried

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