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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market
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To: craig crawford who wrote (823)9/30/2001 11:51:01 PM
From: Sturgeon  Read Replies (3) of 1643
 
Craig,

Jim Rogers has long talked about his expectation for a commodities bull market. His reasoning is classic supply versus demand. Years of low prices have led to a lack of investment in production eventually resulting in a shortage. In the case of mining, I wonder how an investor can confirm that there in deed has been too little investment. Certainly prices have been low for many years with brief exception, and the long term stock performance of mining companies substantiates this. Yet, production of all metals has risen sharply over the last 5, 10, or 15 years. How do you reconcile the idea of shortage of investment in capacity with a long term rise in production? Surely, there had to be substantial investment to increase the production of copper, nickel, lead, etc. Can there be a long term rise in production concurrently with a "hollowing out" of capacity?
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