Hi techreports; Re: "I'd like some links if you don't mind."
Already, Samsung is producing about as much DDR as RDRAM:
samsungelectronics.com
Hyundai, Infineon, and Micron are all producing DDR, but no RDRAM. Toshiba and Elpida are producing both. Perhaps you forgot that DDR includes a lot of production used in graphics cards.
Re: "Yes, but Intel is the industry. Once AMD goes back to 10% share, DDR probably won't have enough volume to compete. If history is any guide, industries like one standard." AMD's percentage may increase or decrease, but this will not prevent DDR from being the next mainstream memory. For you guys who aren't in the industry, my predictions on this are undoubtedly as mysterious as women's fashions. But if you had half a brain you'd realize that there are people out there who already know what colors and materials will be in style next spring. This is because the fashion industry has a lead time of about 6 months to a year between new designs and retail sales. If you go talk to a clothing designer he'll be able to tell you things long in advance of when it becomes obvious.
I'm in the same position in the electronics industry. I'm one of the guys who designs high volume products that use memory, and I can tell you what types of memories will be the "fad" when the current designs hit the factories. For me this is simple. It's what I do for a living.
The amazing thing to me is that the Rambus morons are still in denial about what has happened.
But you're right, in that Intel was easily the most important support for RDRAM in the industry. Unfortunately, Intel never was the dominant user of DRAM. They were dominant in PC chipsets (at least until they they decided to fully support Rambus) but PCs are only part of the usage of DRAM. DRAMs have thousands of uses other than PCs, and Intel has little to do with the vast majority of those uses. The overall result is that Intel had maybe 50% maximum design control over DRAM usage, and when they quit designing for anything other than SDRAM, that percentage quickly dropped to maybe 25%.
That 25% just wasn't enough to force the industry memory designers (like me) to all convert to RDRAM. It was enough to interest Samsung, but not enough to interest all the memory makers. It wasn't enough to get Samsung to quit supporting DDR, either.
The end result is that RDRAM was forced into a niche market. A nice healthy niche market, but a niche market nevertheless.
Wait till this year's Comdex.
A lot of people say that Intel is a gorilla, and what a gorilla wants, a gorilla gets. I think that Intel is a company, not a gorilla, but just to humor them, here's what Intel wants:
Intel DDR chipsets:
(1) 845B P4
(2) 845G P4
(3) 870 P4 Xeon Quad
(4) Plumas P4 Xeon Dual
(5) 870 P7 Octal
users.erols.com
In addition to the above five Intel chipsets, Intel has also licensed Serverworks, ALi, and SiS to make DDR chipsets for Intel processors (same link), and VIA is working on chipsets for Intel processors but without a license for some of them, at least so far:
ALi DDR chipsets for Intel processors
(6) Pro5 P-III
(7) Pro5T P-III
(8) M1642 Celeron
(9) M1671 P4
(10) M1681 P4
SiS DDR chipsets for Intel processors:
(11) 635 P-III
(12) 635T P-III
(13) 640T P-III
(14) 645 P4
(15) 650 P4
Serverworks DDR chipsets for Intel processors:
(16) setIV P4 Xeon Dual
(17) LE P4 Xeon Dual
(18) HE P4 Xeon Quad
VIA DDR chipsets for Intel processors:
(19) Pro266 P-III, Celeron
(20) Pro266T P-III, Celeron
(21) P4X266 P4 (unlicensed)
(22) P4M266 P4 (unlicensed)
(23) P4X333 P4 (unlicensed)
(24) P4M333 P4 (unlicensed)
That's two dozen DDR chipsets for Intel processors. Yes I know that the P-III is being phased out of the desktop market, but some of the above P-III chipsets may see use in notebooks. And of course if you include AMD you get a lot more, but that should be enough for you. Remember, what a gorilla wants a gorilla gets, and Intel wants DDR! Watch what happens at Comdex. I'm guessing that Intel will show off their DDR chipsets then.
-- Carl
P.S. I'm not going to post at TMF, at least while SI is alive. Doesn't TMF close threads down when the stocks get below $1? That the TMF Rambus thread won't last as long as this one. |
