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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: David S. who wrote (847)6/23/1997 8:27:00 PM
From: John Metcalf   of 6136
 
Thanks for the information, Dave: "total viracept scripts = 5,197 for the week ended 6/13 - down 3.5% from previous week. Both new prescriptions and refills were down. New prescriptions were off 10% to 2,710 from 3,013."

Some comments: 1) Since Viracept is packaged with dosage for 30 days in one bottle, a nine-week moving average (two months) is necessary to evaluate script re-fill trend. 2) The run-rate of new prescriptions is 140,000 per year, when you annualize one week's data. 3) Annualized new scripts based on two-week data is 150,000. 4) At $5,650 per year, AGPH is adding $780 - $880 million in annual revenue, assuming that the new consumers acheive desired benefits from Viracept.

Is this what you meant by "positive spin"?
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