Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 94.82

+2.7%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: invinciblewimp who wrote (78813)	10/1/2001 1:06:27 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) of 93625

Invincible, Well, you have BILOW down. Don't pay much attention to Green. He is looking through his rear view mirror and claims to have no position in Rambus. Actually, BILOW is by his own admissions a paid basher and a Team DDR booster as well as a shameless liar. What is going on is nothing less than a marketing war. Team DDR hoped to get market share from Intel by putting out non standard DDR platforms that were going to be cheaper and hopefully as fast as Intel's P4/RDRAM solutions. In order to do, this Team DDR was going to use the AMD Athlon's which were price performance competitve with the P4 until the last few months when Intel increased P4 clock rates and lowered prices. Now Team DDR's strategy is falling apart as there is no product from Intel currently using DDR Dims and AMD is rapidly losing the market share gains it made while Intel was executing their product transitions on their roadmap. There is no substantial market for the DDR DIMMs and as a consequence the the prices are now below cost. AMD has no product that can compete with the P4 which can scale its clock rate to 10 GHZ. AMD needs an entirely new processor design. It was essential that Team DDR attack RAMBUS and exploit any weakness in Intel's product transition plans for the P4. These plans included ramping the RDRAM production by the introduction of the 820 a year ago. Most of us knew that RDRAM could not show its price performance superiority on that platform but it was still neccessary for Intel to have a transition product to prepare the way for the P4. The attacks on RAMBUS came from Micron, Hynix and Infineon. They came in the way of lawsuits and a massive FUD campaign to discredit RAMBUS and legally steal its IP. RDRAM is only one element of Intel's roadmap which includes other types of memory such as SERDES and I/O interconnects. AMD can not afford to spend the money of a broadbased R&D program to upgrade their PC platform and processors. They simply do not have the resources. Where are we now? DDR for PC's has been very late and there is very little demand for it. The prices have fallen out of the SDRAM and DDR markets because of oversupply. In the case of DDR there is both oversupply and anemic demand as no major PC platforms use it. DDR lives now as a niche memory for use with the NVIDIA craphics chips. All members of Team DDR are losing lots of money. This will worsen next quarter. They have won almost every market and legal battle but the are losing the business war. Meanwhile, RAMBUS is profitable and Intel is profitable and Samsung is profitable. What is next? Some of the members of Team DDR will probably be out of the DRAM business next year as they have no products from which they can make money. Meanwhile they are bleeding to death. Expect one more slam from Judge Payne on the legal front. Then attention will shift to the market place where RDRAM will continue to expand its share of the platform memory market through 2002 and beyond. Why? Because no other memory scales properly. As the GHZ rating on the P4 climbs there will be more need for RDRAM as neither DDR or SDRAM scale with processor clockspeed. Hence, the latest twist in the war where AMD is not going to talk about processor clockspeeds anymore. Why? Because they can not compete in that arena anymore. JMO

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