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To: Lucretius who wrote (126713)	10/1/2001 8:15:40 PM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (2) of 436258

Nice little scenario on gold---- <<<Current Commentary -- Where Are We Now? (Sunday 9/30/2001 PM): Gold is behaving as though it may be ready to rally hogher soon. Following the WTC attack, Gold shot up to the $290's. This was a breakaway gap as demonstrated in the chart below. Since Gold has remained in the $290's for 3 weeks, it adds strength to the consolidation process that is taking place. The next move should be to the low $300's to complete 5 waves up from July-August. A retracement should be expected that may bring Gold back to the $290 area again. Short-sellers (such as Goldman-Sachs) will be pulling out all the stops (pun intended) to try to force Gold back down. Unfortunately for the short-sellers, the likelihood that Gold will be viewed as a safe-haven will be growing in popularity among investors -- the gold-related mututal funds and indexes have out-performed all equity funds and indexes. Since investors have not yet lost their taste for speculation, Gold will be viewed as the next trading fad for the momentum players. Once the (red) wave "2" is completed, a strong rally should top $330 very quickly as the short-seller's margins are called and are forced to capitulate, thereby adding to the veracity of the rally. Because there are so many short positions in Gold right now in paper derivatives, the $350 area looks even more likely. If the (red) wave "3" has not completed 5 waves up by the time it reaches $330, then expect $350 before the end of the year. <http://www.geocities.com/%7ECyclePro/Charts/SP500/GoldP10930.gif> Click chart to enlarge. As an alternate view, if Gold is pushed back to the mid-$270's (thereby closing the gap) then I will readdress the Gold chart at that time since the wave patterns will be needed to assess a forecast. Closing a gap is not necessarily bad, normally it is a bullish indication. However, breakaway gaps are rarely filled. Under the circumstances with the terrorist activity and U.S. retaliation efforts, Gold back to $275 is quite unlikely -- $285-286 should be considered a strong secondary support area with $287-289 as primary support for the next 4-5 weeks. geocities.com

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