JBX.
Well, they cited economic uncertainty AND sept 11. The key is that they said...
"For all of 2001, the company said it expects earnings of $2.10 per share, down from previous guidance of $2.16.
The company said it expects a 5 percent earnings growth rate in 2002, and earnings of $2.18 a share."
So the're probably worth $20-$30 per share. I sold a few shares Aug 28, but kept a good amount also.
My strategy, for anyone who cares --
I have ambled to safety since Sept 11. Selling every day until this week. I bought more Reits and Cash, and sold technology. I had a nice start because since August 1, I have been moving to dividend paying stocks. I think I mentioned it here. I think they were hammered less than others, but maybe not.
My best recent buy has been HPT at the bottom. They are a REIT in hotel industry. They lease out the properties to Marriot and such. They have a clause in the contract where they get added rent based on hotel revenue, but it was a very small added bonus in past years. If it goes to zero, not a problem, in my view. The hotels have 10+ year contracts or so. They have 1 year security deposits. The stock is paying 12%. I recommend them, but what do I know?
Another fresh purchase is REG. Commercial REIT, focused on neighborhood shopping centers anchored with grocery stores. Sounds solid to me. Remember -- food is cool. The 4 largest tennants (Kroger, Safeway, Publix, Albertsons) have around 30% of the lease area and average least term is 15 years. 8% yield now. (8.4% when I bought them.) Also bought more apartment REITS -- I like MAA, PPS, AML, AIV, SMT, GBP. Bought more ALD -- check their website and browse through their investments -- wow!. Another grocery REIT is NXL, which I own -- 9.6% yield, but I do not like their management or EPS as much.
I also bought SWY as others posted. I had 'em before and posted here. I quadrupled my stake on their announcement of earnings. I still like CAG and SVU, but have enough. Food is cool.
Also bought more BOBE, and a fresh position in IHP. I like IHP's business model and history. The build the franchises and then sell them to franchisees when up and running.
My bad sales have been - S (I sold 2/3, and I did not want to, nice dividend, damn, why did I do it?), APPC and ROST. My best bail out was DTG at 16.77. And CGO.
Looking at KWR, but even after reading their annual report, I cannot figure out what they do. Any thoughts?
REITS, Cash and Fixed income moved from 36% of my investment portfolio, to 56% now. I sleep better.
alliedcapital.com
Excuse the long post. I haven't posted in awhile.
grommit. |
