OK, but they still predominantly analyze bull market periods.
The original book was released in March of 98.
The original GG book may have been released then, but it was not primarily a book about predicting the future, but rather about describing fundamental patterns which had been observed. If one sets aside or isolates the investment specific aspects of the GG book, which after all is separate from most of what Moore has done, then GG is simply the culmination of the Chasm and Tornado books, which go back quite a bit further and are themselves, descriptions of observed patterns, not forecasts.
The key "fundamental patterns that had been observed" (with the exception of the Cisco case) appear to have occurred primarily during bull market periods.
Also, I was not attempting to address predictions or forecasts.
GG is one of the best books I have ever read. However, parts of the strategy appear to have failed the big new test applied by the current bear market. And, I would project that they may continue to do so as this bear market is extended. My point being that GG does not appear to me to be market agnostic in fact and practice. So, I have been suggesting some modifications may be needed to GG strategy to maximize profits during an extended bear market, then go back to a pure game when the trend reverses itself into a bull market.
Warren Buffett discovered problems with his original use of pure Ben Graham's strategy, as the markets evolved. In fact, he said that the last time the strategy could be applied successfully in its purest form, was the middle 1970's. So, Buffett had to make some modifications to his game to evolve with the times.
Robert |
