you paint a realistic picture
my 40% drop figure for highend is nationwide
sure, SFran will be worse
pockets of WashDC, Chicago, Boston also bad
these Fed rate cuts will NOT work
we are following down Japan's clear path
like or it not
"we have healthier banks" is another denial
do we really
Chase just extended another $300m to LTV, now in for $800m
are you ready for Chase to writeoff a $1b bad loan?
Xerox has 6x debt when compared to mktcap
we will have to observe a long list of bankrupt bignames soon
that will severely dampen consumer confidence
Ford could go bankrupt
any bounce in my view is nothing more than temporary
either in the economy or in the stock market
you are very realistic with minimum of 3 qtrs for recession
no other foreign economy can lift our economy
the US lifted all Asia in 1997-98
Y2K had an incredibly dangerous effect on the world economy
it put all into synch for the first time in decades
in synch going up
now in synch going down
what sector will be significant?
good question
I think medicine, esp biotech
I think energy R&D, when we wake up to urgent need for independence
we must detach from Saudi Arabia and MidEast oil FAST
I have not heard one blessed peep about funding electric cars, fuelcells, renewables
nothing
we are gonna spend spend spend, on war efforts, public and covert
watch our bridges, watch our electric grid, watch our water
they are all in danger
as I said before, the main question I harbor is...
will this turn into a long and deep recession?
my guess is YES
and will this turn into a mild depression?
right not, I say 50-50
meanwhile, property prices will gather steam going down
June: minus 0.6%
July: minus 1.1%
August: minus 2.7%
my guess Sept: minus 3+%
what we see is dire, pure dire
sadly, I must conclude that BinLaden is winning
as a nation we got hit by $50b in NYCity alone
and $20-25b in insurance losses
and $1500b in mkt capitalization losses
and 500,000 jobs
AND WE CANNOT EVEN LOCATE OUR ENEMY
/ jim |
