OCT 2 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - CLASS 1 SELL
SPX - CLASS 1 SELL
OEX - CLASS 1 SELL
NAZ - upper midrange
NDX - midrange
VIX - pending CLASS 1 BUY(inverse to market)
The WINDOW for the CLASS 1 SELL signals are until tomorrows intraday highs, so a short-term top should arrive tomorrow for the DOW/SPX/OEX.
The NAZ/NDX/SOX are not near a CLASS SELL signal but since they have been lagging the DOW/SPX/OEX, I am interpretating that as weakness and once the DOW/SPX/OEX starts selling off the NAZ should also follow suit. One other possibility is sector rotation from the DOW into the NAZ, but in light the recent weakness in the NAZ, I feel the chances of that occuring is slim.
The SOX closed at 354, setting a NEW CLOSING LOW, but not an new intraday low. The intraday low last week was at 343. Sorry but it appears that the downtrend in the SOX is still intact.
What is a bit confusing with the NAZ/NDX, is that the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs. It closed today at negative 157 which is a slight improvement over yesterdays close and still significantly above the negative 700 readings of last week. At least for now the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs is not supporting extreme negativity. Im not saying that the NAZ/NDX wont drop, but if the HI-LOs do not deteriorate significantly, this forthcoming short-term pullback may not be that strong. Please keep in mind that the NDX is only 70 points above the previous intraday lows, so a LOWER LOW is quite possible, but it may not go alot lower.
I am suspecting that for the forthcoming pullback the DOW/SPX/OEX may not retest the previous lows, but the NAZ/NDX should. As mentioned previously, I consider a sucessful retest to be within 7% of the previously low. So in the case of the NDX if the retest does set a lower low below 1088 but stays above 1012 and rebounds, then that is still a successful retest which could be quite bullish.
In my mutual fund account I still have an even hedge position(UOPIX/USPIX) and am still holding onto the JAN 04 QQQ 25 leaps, which is still slightly in the money/flat. |
