The motive behind bin Laden's moves
Terrorist seeks West's destruction by controlling oil
Diane Francis -- Financial Post
Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden's end game is to destroy the West by taking over the Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates. This would give him control over the world's oil price, let him punish "Godless" nations and destroy the world's economy by driving prices up so high that growth would cease.
The disturbing backdrop to the escalation of terrorism by bin Laden, and accomplices Iraq and Libya and the Afghan Taleban, is that a dramatic decline in oil production began last year outside the Middle East.
Production peaked in 2000 and will decline in the North Sea, Alaska, Venezuela, Mexico and China. The only future increases in production among non-OPEC nations will be in Canada, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The Middle East will continue to dominate with huge reserves and make the world once again more dependent than ever on its oil.
"The world is using one billion barrels of non-OPEC oil every 23 days and to replace that must find a giant field every 23 days. That's impossible," said Henry Groppe, a Texas consultant who forecasts energy prices and lived in Saudi Arabia for some years. He was a speaker, along with myself, at a recent conference in Halifax sponsored by Pengrowth Energy of Calgary.
"September 11 made it compelling that the Americans have military control over the Arabian [Persian] Gulf. They have essentially declared it a U.S. lake," he said. "For years, the strategy was to keep the Soviets out of the region."
Now it's to keep the Islamic extremists out.
The first, and biggest, battle against murderous extremism was the Gulf War. A coalition led by Washington restored Kuwait to its ruling class, by pushing Iraq out. The decision to keep Saddam Hussein in power was fatal and the Americans will isolate him by co-opting his arch enemy, Iran, and by removing the Taleban and bin Laden. (Interestingly, for the first time since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, mullahs in mosques two weeks ago dropped from prayers the ending "death to America.")
But the most controversial decision was to keep American troops on Saudi Arabian soil to provide ongoing protection for American strategic interests in the region. This has triggered the jihad.
"The Saudi royal family's job is to protect the holy sites of Islam. The presence of American troops on holy soil, with female soldiers, is considered blasphemous," said Mr. Groppe. "The concern is whether the royal family will survive. Anti-American sentiment is growing in Saudi Arabia and there have been bombings in the last six or seven years. The current royalty consists of five brothers who elected a king amongst themselves. But the next generation is huge and may be at odds."
And as Saudi Arabia goes, so goes the world's economy.
It is the leader of OPEC and the world's most prolific, and pivotal, producer from a price standpoint.
As long as the current leadership survives, the Saudis will keep oil prices within a range of US$25 a barrel to US$31 a barrel to insure economic stability and world economic growth, said Mr. Groppe, a world expert.
What is worrisome is that Mr. Groppe believes that while the Saudis are officially supporting America's efforts to set up an anti-terrorist network to find and destroy bin Laden and others, some Saudis have financially supported bin Laden. Some involuntarily.
"We also understand that many of the Saudi princes have had large sums of money extorted from them by the bin Laden and other terrorists," said an intelligence source from Washington.
From now on, Washington's energy policy will be aligned with counterterrorism activities.
For instance, troops were deployed to the central Asian countries (which are energy producers) from the former Soviet Union. Concern is that bin Laden and the Taleban will export their deadly terrorism and extremism there where new oil and natural gas production is to come from.
As for Canada, it's interesting to note that energy is going to be this country's biggest trump card -- notably Alberta's oil sands and Nova Scotia's massive natural gas offshore reserves. To underscore the strategic importance of Canada's energy assets Washington sent Prime Minister Jean Chrétien packing with instructions that Canada's meagre military forces would be best deployed guarding Canada's energy assets from terrorist attack. So the Canadian military has become the energy police for North America. Not exactly a proud role but one that is very important in terms of the battle.
As oil and energy prices go, so goes the North American economy.
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