ST trading, and childhood memories:
In the week on 9/17-21, I went from 40% cash to 40% margin. I've been calculating my margin % before each trade, and that is too close to the edge, way too overleveraged. I haven't made any sales yet, this week's rally has moved me a bit away from the abyss, but I'll be selling soon.
I expect AMAT to move in lockstep with the SOX. The intraday July lows for the SOX and Nas were 344 and 1387. For now, my plan is to start selling when we see a 30% rally off those lows (SOX 447, Nas 1803), and to be back to 40% cash on a 50% rally (SOX 516, Nas 2080). Notice, those 50% rally areas correspond to support/resistance lines on the chart. I'd expect AMAT to be stalling at 40, at about the time the SOX is stalling in the low 500s.
This volatility is amazing. The market could just as easily have used the NT news as a reason to tank, rather than the CSCO news as a reason to rally. Another 2-3 days like today, and my lower sell targets will be reached, for various stocks. For months, it's been impossible for me to predict how the market will react to news, whether it will be ignored or not.
I remember, as a child, my parents taking me to bullfights when we lived in Spain. This market reminds me of the bulls, about 3/4 of the way through the fight. By then, the bull is seriously wounded, blood pouring off his shoulder, head lowered, starting to stumble, but still able to make sudden lunges and charges, swinging his head back and forth, looking for a target or a haven, confused. The end is near. Soon, he will charge one last time into the lowered red cape, and the matador will bring the hidden sword out over the cape, and sink it into the bull's neck. I can smell the blood, now. |
