I am attaching here an email I get from John Petersen's Arlington Institute. I met John when he helped us financial planners visualize our future (you know, the abstract futuristic stuff, lots of mayhem and lots of fun<g>). He is no authority on foreign affairs but I have found his emails and the links providing very challenging reading, mostly pertaining to future, technology, the meaning of life<g>, etc.
Hope you find this as useful as I do. This one deals with the terrorist attacks of course and it's very different from the other emails he usually sends, instructions to subscribe at the bottom.
FUTUREdition Volume 4, Number 19
October 2, 2001 -- Edited by John L. Petersen
In This SPECIAL EDITION Issue:
-- Punctuations - by John L. Petersen
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At The Arlington Institute, we believe that to understand the future, you
need to have an open mind and cast a very wide net. To that end,
FUTUREdition explores a cross-disciplinary palette of issues, from the
frontiers of science and technology to major developments in mass media,
geopolitics, the environment, and social perspectives.
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This is a plain text version of an HTML document.
The HTML version can be found at:
arlingtoninstitute.org
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PUNCTUATIONS by John L. Petersen (mailto:john@arlingtoninstitute.org)
Because of what we do here at The Arlington Institute, I sit at the nexus of
a number of diverse streams of information that span the range of:
non-American friends with unique insights, strategic planners, the
scientific community, activists working for peace, military professionals,
and some just plain interesting thinkers. During Y2K we tried to watch and
understand the evolution of a potential wild card event, so, from an
intellectual perspective, it has been fascinating to watch the unfolding of
diverse thought about the September 11th event over the last two weeks.
The headline in the paper last week was that no attack was imminent; quite a
change from the impression given by our government just days ago. It has
been interesting to watch the evolution of that position. The role that the
Internet has played in rapidly moving - and shaping - ideas during these
days has been quite amazing to me. There has been a significant "secondary
market" for ideas that has operated underneath the CNN's of the world. This
second level of assessment and comment, generated by interested individuals
and sometimes drawn from insightful pieces in lesser newspapers and other
publications would rapidly spread around the world... and then those ideas
seemed to get picked up by policymakers. The government would then modify
their position on, say, bin Laden, which would, of course make the news and
start the cycle all over again. From my vantage, this secondary layer of
commentators always had the best ideas before the rest of the system, and in
fact seemed to drive the process.
I've assembled here some of the most provocative comments that I received in
the last two weeks. These pieces stood out to me because of the
insightfulness and clarity (in most cases) of the authors' positions... not
necessarily because I agreed with them. They provoked me to think. I hope
they do that for you.
THE EVENT
A Series of Photos
arlingtoninstitute.org
Please be a bit patient - your computer may take some time to download the
file. Warning: explicit photos.
Graubner Explains WTC Collapse
skyscrapers.com
Professor Graubner is one of the world's leading experts on the
architectural aspects of high-rise structures. Here he discusses the WHY and
HOW of the WTC crash.
THE REACTION
Tribute to the United States
arlingtoninstitute.org
The following is the text of an editorial broadcast from Toronto by Gordon
Sinclair, a Canadian television commentator. What follows is the full text
of his remarks as printed in the Congressional Record.
A Pictorial Tribute From Around the World
home.pressroom.com
A collage of photographs from all over, many showing people bringing flowers
and laying them outside American embassies in far-flung parts of the world.
WHO DID IT?
Who Did It? Foreign Report Presents an Alternative View
janes.com
tml
Israel's military intelligence service, Aman, suspects that Iraq is the
state that sponsored the suicide attacks on the New York Trade Center and
the Pentagon in Washington. Directing the mission, Aman officers believe,
were two of the world's foremost terrorist masterminds: the Lebanese Imad
Mughniyeh, head of the special overseas operations for Hizbullah, and the
Egyptian Dr Ayman Al Zawahiri, senior member of Al-Qaeda and possible
successor of the ailing Osama Bin Laden.
A Conflict Without Battlefields Or Beachheads
arlingtoninstitute.org
This article seriously questions whether bin Laden himself masterminded the
assault and suggests that that simplistic opinion overlooks some important
limitations under which bin Laden is currently operating.
OSAMA BIN LADEN
Bin Laden Calls His Balkan Brigades to Arms
arlingtoninstitute.org
Originally published by the news service Debka, debka.com , but
no longer available on their site, the following article details numbers and
general countries of origin of well-armed soldiers loyal to bin Laden.
Bin Laden's Long Reach
washingtonpost.com.
html
Since the early 1990s, Saudi exile Osama bin Laden has built a secretive,
highly compartmentalized but interocking terrorist network with the purpose
of ousting pro-Western governments in the Middle East, derailing the
Arab-Israeli peace process and driving the United States from the region.
Hunting bin Laden
pbs.org
This website, sponsored by the Public Broadcasting Service, contains
excerpts from a number of interviews with Osama bin Laden over the recent
years, a biography of him and some information on Al Qaeda.
Bin Laden: Architect of New Global Terrorism
washingtonpost.com
With followers around the world, Osama bin Laden is believed to draw on what
James B. Steinberg, who was deputy national security adviser to President
Bill Clinton, called "a network of more or less affiliated organizations,
some loosely, some very close." The groups that form this network allied
with bin Laden's organization, known as al Qaeda ("the base"), are
concentrated in the Middle East, but include members in the Balkans,
Chechnya, Southeast and Central Asia, Africa and the United States. They
share resources and expertise, lending operatives for particular operations.
They have become, in a sense, models of globalization.
AFGHANISTAN
The View Through Native Eyes
arlingtoninstitute.org
Tamim Ansary is a Afghan-born journalist who now lives and writes in the
United States. His reflections on the bombing of Afghanistan and many of its
potential repercussions are elegantly expressed.
WHY WERE WE SURPRISED?
Bush Did Not Heed Several Warnings of Attacks
news.independent.co.uk
According to a British news source, evidence from countless sources has
surfaced in the past few days, suggesting that the "colossal failure of
intelligence" described by several senior politicians was not entirely the
result of ignorance. In the three weeks before the attack, the Federal
Bureau of Investigation was actually looking for two suspected associates of
Osama bin Laden who turned out to be among the 19 suicide hijackers.
First We Cripple the CIA,Then We Blame It
arlingtoninstitute.org
An essay by the novelist Tom Clancy examines the role of U.S. intelligence
in preventing terrorism.
THE GLOBAL CONTEXT
Kenoli Oleari Offers His Personal Observations:
In a way I felt strangely unmoved by this terrorism; after all, I spend some
time everyday thinking of the billions of people who suffer or die daily at
the routine "business" as usual work of the United States. This is a huge
sorrow to live with constantly, it does numb the nerves somewhat. That
suddenly this consequence of our actions shows up immediately in our midst
is not surprising; in some way it is a miracle that it took this long to
show up on our door step. And it brings with it the same sorrow, the same
loss, the same broken lives that occur daily for billions of others at the
hands of our country's way of being in the world. Having just returned from
Indonesia, I am deep with the awareness of the depth of physical suffering
that has become the norm for these billions of people. Those folks whose
dream is a $3.50/day job with Nike.
I was deeply struck by some statistics that more than a billion of the
world's people live on less than a dollar a day and lack the most basic
necessities of life. Where is peace and justice? And prosperity and hope?
How do we act? Is there a hope for something else? How can those of us act
who want healing and not revenge? How can we acknowledge the apparent
inability of some people (or groups) to see beyond revenge, without
endorsing it? How can we act in response to this response in a way that
heals, that makes more possible an alternative other than more terror and
war? How can we model something else in the world? How can we make a
statement that can be heard?
Day The World Changed?
arlingtoninstitute.org
Paul Von Ward, whose 62nd birthday was on September 11, 2001, gently urges
us to consider what it might be to be truly human.
A Hatred Rooted In Failings
washingtonpost.com
Having spent many years living in the region and learning about Islam,
Caryle Murphy writing in the "Washington Post" believes that three major
factors have brought it to this point: authoritarian governments that have
spawned extremist movements by failing to develop a civil society that
permits dissent; the inability of modern interpretations of Islam to prevail
over outdated, orthodox versions; and America's failure to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Holy Warriors Escalate an Old War On a New Front
nytimes.com
The airborne assault on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon is the
culmination of a decade-long holy war against the United States that is
escalating methodically in ambition, planning and execution. The hallmarks
of that old war are now being scrutinized by investigators with new urgency.
They include the recruitment of willing martyrs and their indoctrination and
training, the planting of agents in target countries years in advance, the
preparation of false identity documents, the provision of money and credit,
and the creation of a compartmentalized structure for security.
U.S. Likely to Emerge More In Touch With World
arlingtoninstitute.org
Francis Fukuyama professor of international political economy at Johns
Hopkins University, whose family was sent to a Japanese "relocation center"
during World War II, looks at issues of ethnic diversity in the United
States as this country tries to determine how it will counter the threat of
further terrorist attacks.
The Global Great Divide: An Integral Initiative
arlingtoninstitute.org
If, indeed, we are about to launch the first war of the 21st Century, where
are the battle lines? The end of the Cold War and the meltdown of the
bipolar ice sheet that covered the planet, revealed the hot ethnic cores,
seething rage, and deep tributaries of violence and revenge that had been
suppressed. And now the fuse that has been simmering for centuries in the
Middle East flared in full view on the morning of September 11, revealing
yet another Global Great Divide.
>From Israel, a Perspective
arlingtoninstitute.org
David Dolan examines the meaning behind the street celebrations that swept
many Palestinian towns and other Arab centers throughout the Middle East
after the terrorist events of September 11th.
Dying of Poverty
library.thinkquest.org
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
about 35,615 children died from conditions of starvation on September 11,
2001. The FAO www.fao.org estimates that there are approximately 12,000,000
starvation and hunger-related disease deaths among children per year,
worldwide.
Relevant Statistics
Victims: 32,800 children (source: FAO)
Where: poor countries
Televised special programing: none
Newspaper articles: none
Messages from the president: none
Solidarity acts: none
Public minutes of silence: none
Public victims mournings: none
Organized forums: none
Papal messages: none
Alert level: zero
Army mobilization: none
THE U.S. RESPONSE
The Evidence - a Comment by Bernard Calil
Before embarking on a campaign that will inevitably cause major collateral
damage in human lives, ruined economies and soured political relationships
it is very important that the U.S. puts up a credible case angainst Bin
Laden.
The United States is a country with the most righteous constitution that
guarantees freedom, a fair trial, a right of defense, and the assumption
that one is innocent until convicted. The U.S. should not compromise its own
values; not even for such horror.
Looking at Recent Events Through the Lens of Military History
arlingtoninstitute.org
As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, Dr. Tony
Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)has what may be a startling perspective: this war
will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or
soldiers.
And Our Flag Was Still There
arlingtoninstitute.org
Novelist Barbara Kingsolver ruminates on what the American flag stands for
as so many of us display it currently.
What Would Victory Mean?
nytimes.com
This editorial from the "New York Times" examines the situation of an enemy
that is not a government, gang or despot, but hatred. And a hatred powerful
enough to motivate a person to live for years among his victims while
preparing their common death is a form of madness, a disease.
Email Interview With Noam Chomsky
zmag.org
Chomsky's extremely well informed answers to six well-framed questions cover
some very important terrain. When you get to the ZNet homepage, click on
"Chomsky Answers Albert Questions".
Computer Pros Launch Hack Attack on Mideast
usatoday.com
Saying the U.S. government hasn't sufficiently responded to last week's
terrorist attacks, a group of vigilante hackers has taken matters into its
own hands and defaced some 200 to 300 Middle Eastern government Web sites
and those of Palestinian Internet service providers.
Counter-Intuition
arlingtoninstitute.org
Maybe it's time to move beyond counter-intelligence to counter-intuition.
Suspend all of our traditional responses and methods for a moment and think
outside the box -- to use an overworked phrase -- way outside. What if,
instead dropping bombs, we drop checks. Don't laugh yet. Think about it
first.
Identifying Terrorists Before They Strike
skirsch.com (abridged
version)
skirsch.com (unabridged version)
"Brain fingerprinting" is a new technology that offers a relatively fast and
reliable method to determine who is a terrorist and who is not.
Is There Something We Should Be Doing Differently?
arlingtoninstitute.org
We should not be intimidated into changing our policies by terrorism.
However, this presumes that our policies are correct.
A Dark Chuckle Making the Email Rounds
"Killing Bin Laden will only create a martyr. Holding him prisoner will
inspire his comrades to take hostages to demand his release. Therefore, I
suggest we do neither. Let the Special Forces, Seals or whatever covertly
capture him, fly him to an undisclosed hospital and have surgeons quickly
perform a complete sex change operation. Then we return her to Afghanistan
to live as a woman under the Taliban."
Another Piece of Dark Humor on the Email Circuit
"If I were president, I'd be carpet bombing Afghaninstan with Twinkies,
Ho-Hos, Ding-Dongs, popcorn, and soda pop. TVs and microwaves would be
airlifted in by the millions, and I'd start pumping Baywatch and Xena to the
populace 24/7. I'd airlift prefrabricated McDonalds and Burger King
restaurants and set them down in every city with a population greater than
5,000. Then would come a wave of megaplex movie theaters. Playing the
finest tripe Hollywood has to offer. I'd fill their stomachs, numb their
minds, and give 'em all heart disease. They wouldn't hurt us anymore; they'd
sit back content in ignorant bliss."
THE SOLUTION
The Challenge of Terror: A Traveling Essay
arlingtoninstitute.org
John Lederach opens his essay by deliniating four key challenges and then
examining the nature of a creative response that takes these seriously in
the pursuit of genuine, durable, and peaceful change.
Excerpts From a Reflection
arlingtoninstitute.org
This call to action presents a complex and hugely demanding question, a
question that will stretch everyone regardless of political or philosophical
persuasion. Dr. Charles Johnson asks: What kind of response will best serve
us in the only way that ultimately matters, by making the world a safer
place?
Why Give More Money to the CIA?
In response to the question above, Robert Bernstein writes: First, there is
a substantive issue here that Mr. Bush sent $43 million to the Taliban just
a few months ago, in May. No one has responded to that point. No one has
explained why more money and power for the CIA will result in anything
different from the past actions of the CIA: support for an endless series of
terrorists and counter-terrorists. There is a long list of terrorists funded
by the CIA and as far as I know a null set of democratic and popular
movements supported by the CIA.
Does anyone care to explain why more money and less accountability for the
CIA will help?
The second point: There is a heroic and democratic movement in Afghanistan
which we can support as citizens: The Revolutionary Association of the Women
of Afghanistan (RAWA).
THE UNDERLYING ORIGINS OF THIS EVENT
The Mind of a Terrorist
arlingtoninstitute.org
The following is an open memo addressed to Senator Jesse Helms, Chairman,
Senate Foreign Relations Committee suggesting that the kind of outrage that
invites political terror will continue until is hope of adjudication and
redress.
The Source of Terrorism
arlingtoninstitute.org
We Americans must ask ourselves why people sacrifice their lives to bring
terror on our soil? Unless we understand the "why" of these acts, we can
never completely prevent such acts in the future. For every nation is
vulnerable, and always will be, to those who are willing to sacrifice their
lives to kill others.
Let's Not Repeat This
arlingtoninstitute.org
Three telling quotes from American leaders.
Telling It Like It Is: What We Have to Change About Our Country
global-vision.org (See Footnote 13)
George Kennan, the head of the State Department's Planning Office, in a now
declassified 1948 secret memo, "Policy Planning Study 23": "We have about
50% of the world's wealth, but only 6.3% of its population.... In this
situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real
task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will
permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment
to our national security. To do so, we will have to dispense with all
sentimentality and day-dreaming; and our attention will have to be
concentrated everywhere on our immediate national objectives. We need not
deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world
benefaction... We should cease to talk about vague and-for the Far
East-unreal objectives such as human rights, the raising of the living
standards, and democratization. The day is not far off when we are going to
have to deal in straight power concepts. The less we are then hampered by
idealistic slogans, the better."
THE POSSIBLE NEXT EVENTS
Terrorists 'Already Have Biological Weapons'
news.independent.co.uk
The British "Independent" on Sunday has learnt that security and
intelligence reports led to the warnings in the Commons on Friday by Tony
Blair and Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, that next time the terrorists
may use chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons.
U.S. Unprepared for Bioterrorism
kurzweilai.net
Launching a smallpox epidemic could be as easy as leveling the World Trade
Center using planes hijacked with box cutters: Intentionally give the virus
to 40 or 50 suicidal terrorists, wait a few days until they are highly
infectious and then send them out to walk through airports, ride subways or
go to ballgames, says Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota,
author of "Living Terrors."
Bin Laden Sought Nuclear Matter
boston.com
+.shtml
Accused terrorist Osama bin Laden and associates in his Al Qaeda
organization have tried several times to buy nuclear weapons, including one
1994 attempt to buy uranium, according to federal prosecutors. Since then,
several Arabic newspapers have reported that bin Laden, now considered the
chief suspect by the Bush administration for last week's attacks in New York
and Washington, has succeeded in obtaining nuclear material.
Fear of Anthrax Attack Boosts Sales of Antibiotics
news.excite.com
Pharmacists in New York have sold greater-than-normal amounts of antibiotics
for treating anthrax, a highly contagious and potentially fatal disease,
amid rising fear of biological warfare after the attacks on the World Trade
Center. Though sales of antibiotics normally rise in September when children
return to school and parents are concerned about their exposure to
infections, pharmacists said the sale of Bayer AG's anti-microbial drug
Cipro are much higher than usual.
Attacks Raise Specter of Bio-Terrorism
news.excite.com
In London fears of bio-terrorism loom large as scientists and public health
officials urge countries to be vigilant and ready for an attack by
biological weapons. Although the risk may be small, experts believe the
attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon two weeks ago raise the
specter of bioterrorism.
Defense May Be Inadequate for Germ or Toxic Attacks
nytimes.com
Experts say civil defenses across the nation are a rudimentary patchwork
that could prove inadequate for what might lie ahead, especially lethal
germs, which are considered some of the most dangerous weapons of mass
destruction.
Atomic Suitcase Bombs
pbs.org
In the 1960s the U.S. built its own version of a mini nuclear device - the
Special Atomic Demolition Munition (SADM). It weighed 80-100 pounds, was
small enough to fit in a duffel bag or large case and was designed for
sabotage missions-- airfields, bridges, dams. Film of the SADM was
declassified in 1997 and shows how it would be deployed by a parachutist for
a jump mission into water to reach a target.
SO WHAT THEN SHOULD WE DO?
Message From the Pilot
arlingtoninstitute.org
This is what was reportedly said by one airline pilot addressing all the
passengers just before take off as commercial flights resumed. For an
impromtu speech, it's remarkably well prepared and the passenger who quoted
it obviously takes excellent shorthand... Nonetheless, it's worth reading.
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A special thanks to Sarah Black, Bernard Calil, Trevor Goldstein, Diane
Petersen, John C. Petersen, Bill Thompson, Owen Wormser, and Jin Zhu our
contributors and to Suzanne Elusorr, who assembled the newsletter. If you
see something we should know about, do send it along - thanks.
mailto:johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org
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