LindyBill's Ballroom Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : LindyBill's Ballroom

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: LindyBill who wrote (123)	10/3/2001 9:47:09 PM
From: stockman_scott	of 248

Today's Swenlin report...(Borrowed from the CFZ thread)... <There were a number of things that came together to fuel today's rally: (1) The President talked about a stimulus package around $70 billion, (2) the NAPM report was better than expected; and (3) Cisco's John Chambers did not warn today -- he affirmed earlier guidance. The latter sparked a short-covering rally in some tech sectors which gradually spread to other areas. There was good buying pressure at the end of the day, which means there was some real buying as well. With today's +5.9% Nasdaq rally coming on the heels of my dismal outlook on the Nasdaq yesterday, we must note that the picture is somewhat improved -- today it played catch-up with the rest of the market. My assessment yesterday was quite correct -- the Nasdaq did look horrible, and I was tempted to go on a Nasdaq SELL Signal. But it occurred to me that wasn't such a good idea with a new 9-Month Cycle just beginning. Market indexes are getting a little more than moderately overbought short-term, and we should be looking for the top that will mark the beginning of the retest. It could take another week for the topping process to work through as price indexes approach and begin to encounter overhead resistance. I have drawn what I think are important lines of resistance on the one-year index charts. An obvious horizontal resistance line is drawn from the April lows, but it is possible that some indexes will get above this line. I would not take such action too seriously at this point. As of today all primary intermediate-term indicators for the four major indexes are on buy signals. You now have a choice of believing that we're only going to get a "V" bottom and getting in, or waiting for the pullback/retest that typically happens. If you look at the PMO action at important bottoms you will see it typically crosses up through its 10-EMA, then it pulls back toward the line. That's what I am going to wait for. On Friday we got an S&P 5-day price momentum buy signal -- the S&P moved up +7.78% in five days. This ranks ninth of all such moves since 1974, and historically the S&P has been up an average of about +20% after one year. All such moves have been successful since 1974 except the last two. The signal of 3/21/00 saw the market down -23% a year later, and the signal on 4/21/01 has some major catching up to do to be successful -- we're almost at the six month point and so far the S&P is down about -16%. I mention this to emphasize that the rules are different in a major bear market. --Carl Swenlin.> Message 16451680

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next