No clue in regards to the "4" I have to defer to you guys on that.
There were some nice sticks today on some of the indices that i'm seeing. I think if this is to continue this first wave up should be smaller, pullback to support on the resistances that were just taken out, higher lows...then the bigger wave of buying.
it's a bit of a conundrum for me, since:
1)historically this is the worst month for tech/nasdaq,
2) in '98 the bullish percents put their lows in in Sept, reversed up, and all the indexes put their price lows in in October a few weeks later.
3)and This is an especially nagging sticker in my side
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Archive 8/19/01-9/7/01
$VIX and finding the bottom
Posted By: ebt111
Date: Friday, 7 September 2001, at 1:03 a.m.]
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So I have to stick to my guns here, if I'm able to be close by my desk, and the opportunity is there, I'm willing to pull hard on some short term longs here...and it's tough not to want to chase.
We just had some of the lowest readings EVER in some of the bullish %s last week, one index went to 0!, and the VIX was pretty damn high there. This terrorist shock event was very similiar to the fiasco in Oct.98, in that it so unexpected. It definitely influenced the cycles I think, inverted them.
The market was headed down regardless, but with the latest unprecidented FED PUMP thanks to the Terrorist shock on the heels of bullish % #'s VERY close to 98 levels preceeding it, we could be set up for some brief power up here.
It will have to prove itself ALL the way, but there could be some good money to be made on the longside here before the inevitable reversal back down to lower lows in a few weeks.
It will be dangerous I think, I doubt I'll be close enogh to play it, so I'll probably have to wait a little longer to get my final targets. Everyone's situation is different. |
