What a dreamy day. LOL Is it real. YES! CSCO has spoken. All we now is to find out the reality of what the fight is going to be like and enough time between the reality of what the recovery will be like to build faith in the market and for the recovery to be real to further drive stocks.
Remember it's all about perception of what the facts will be. Nothing better to be long between when the facts are laid out with perception being stroked. That's really not hard to understand. If when the facts come out then everyone will have the same information and it should be priced in, so it's better to be buying before the facts are laid out.
Facts?!
What facts?
Is this going to be a repeat of April?
CSCO reiterates guidance.
That's nice.
2 Cents.
2 Cents!!!!
PE over 100 or is it 170?
Is that a good buy?
If I sound like a huge short I am not.
I have been stupidly 80% in cash for about a month.
Should have been hugely short instead.
Fortunately I closed SMALL VRSN and EBAY shorts for small profits this AM.
I believe the market sentiment has changed.
J6P no nonger believes the bottom is in.
Layoffs are increasing.
Fundamentals keep sinking.
If the funds want to waste more money let them do it.
To be honest, I do not know if the bottom is in or not.
My guess is that it is not in.
The easy profit was made.
It was made TODAY.
If you went long the index a few day ago congrats.
If you were silly enough to buy NTAP at 10 a week ago you are hugely underwater.
20% gains tomorrow and the next.
Ha Ha.
I am watching for a bit.
AS soon as we stall, I will short.
Could be as soon as tomorrow.
I am a NERVOUS short.
I am a NERVOUS long.
Valuations on VRSN EBAY NVDA etc etc etc are totally nuts.
Of course valuations on CSCO are nuts.
Market will bottom with CSCO at 5.
In the meantime they rally everything.
That is how the stupid market works.
They all rally or they all fall.
On bad news some things get hit more than others.
NTAP will rise 100% off the bottom.
Hell it may rise 200% off the bottom.
That will put it at 18.
Not a lot of good for someone who bought at 100, 70, 50, 35 (a number I was silly enough to think was the bottom at one point), but at 15 .... That 200% rise will show a profit.
Slowly, slowly over time things will return to the norm.
VRSN will be at $5 before all is said and done.
CSCO will be at $5.
IBM at 45.
Etc etc.
20% gains from the bottom on JNPR when one was down 95% from 200+ is simply not meaningful.
Is this rally ready to die?
For my calls, I hope not.
For my puts, (a far bigger %) I sure as hell hope so.
For my cash, a HUGE% I really do not care.
If we rally, I will short, If we drop, I have a decent feeling of where the bottom might be.
Naz 1200.
Dow 6000.
M |
