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GRUN: Gruntal & Co. WFHC- Reiterate 1-1 Rating 10:33am EDT 27-Sep-01 Gruntal & Co WFHC Page 1 Gruntal & Co. L.L.C. Equity Research Note September 27, 2001 Jeffrey J. Kraws (212) 820-3604 njgolf1@yahoo.com Karen B. Feinberg (212) 820-3617 kfeinber@yahoo.com Garry I.G. Parton (212) 820-3623 partongig@aol.com John V. Moran (212) 820-3483 johnvmoran@yahoo.com Company: Women First HealthCare,Inc.#+ WFHC-$8.50a/o 7:45a.m.EDT Industry: Pharmaceutical Intermediate Rating: 1-Outperformer Target Price: $14 Long Term Rating: 1-Outperformer Target Price: $18 Suitability: Aggressive Risk WOMEN FIRST HEALTHCARE, INC. ACQUIRES RIGHTS TO DEVELOPMENT-STAGE PRESCRIPTION PRENATAL VITAMIN SOFTGEL AS PART OF TERMINATION OF ESSENTIA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. COPROMOTION AGREEMENT; REITERATE 1- 1 RATING. * Women First HealthCare, Inc. announced today that closely held Essentia Pharmaceuticals has sent them a notice of their intent to cease operations in North America. This has caused a previously announced copromotion agreement between Women First HealthCare, Inc. and St. Louis-based Essentia Pharmaceuticals to terminate effective today. Women First HealthCare, Inc. announced the two-year copromotion agreement with Essentia Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in April 2001, whereby Essentia's 50-person sales force was to detail Women First HealthCare, Inc.'s estrogen replenishment products-Ortho-Est Tablets and Esclim estradiol transdermal system-to general and family practice physicians throughout Essentia's territories in the U.S. The revenue generated by this agreement was subject to sharing between the parties on a pre- established base line. * As part of today's termination agreement between Essentia Pharmaceuticals and Women First HealthCare, Inc., the two companies have entered into certain arrangements to satisfy Essentia Pharmaceuticals contractual obligations whereby Banner Pharmacaps, Inc., an affiliate of Essentia Pharmaceuticals, has agreed to develop a proprietary new prescription prenatal vitamin product in softgel form for Women First HealthCare, Inc. without payment of a development fee to Banner. Women First HealthCare, Inc. will contract with Banner Pharmacaps, Inc., for the manufacturing of the product. * This product is expected to be available for sale toward the end of 2002, and will become part of a total market for prenatal vitamins estimated at $170 million in the U.S. Banner Pharmacaps, Inc., is one of the world's leading producers of encapsulated pharmaceutical and nutritional products. Also, Women First HealthCare, Inc. and Banner Pharmacaps, Inc., have collectively stated that the two companies could potentially enter discussions that may lead to an expanded collaboration and/or broader exclusivity rights subject to mutual agreement on terms. * IMPORTANTLY, Women First HealthCare, Inc. has announced that it intends to pursue a replacement company who can assist in the detailing of its two estrogen replenishment products. The company has also stated that with regard to the impact on earnings, the termination and settlement of the copromotion agreement is not expected to reduce third quarter earnings, though that fourth quarter and full year 2002 could see a small negative impact to earnings if the company does not find a replacement sales force with which to market its estrogen replenishment products or acquire additional new products. * We believe that Women First HealthCare, Inc. will continue with its plan of aggressively pursuing product and/or business acquisitions that are accretive to earnings. We also believe that the company is likely to be able to add another quality copromotion partner over the next three to six months should it desire to do so. If either of the two aforementioned events takes place, any modest negative earnings impact would likely be eliminated. At this time, we are not revising our forecasts as we maintain our view that the company should be able to replace this partner with either additional products and/or a new partner. Furthermore, gaining a product with significant potential and value is quite positive for an early-stage specialty pharmaceutical company. * We continue to expect Women First HealthCare, Inc. to achieve a host of near-term milestones that could serve as catalysts for share price appreciation. These include: (1) achieving profitability; (2) implementing a physician education marketing program to position Esclim as the preferred product in its therapeutic category; (3) contracting aggressively to increase Ortho-Est sales and market share in the `natural' estrogen category; (4) acquiring prescription products within the categories of hormone replacement, pain management and infection control (primarily vaginal); and (5) completing the ongoing Phase IV trial for Esclim to position the product even more favorably among the estrogen patch market. * We maintain our loss per-share forecast for 2001 of $0.19, and our 2002 through 2006 earnings per share (EPS) estimates of $0.19, $0.80, $1.35, $1.38, and $1.57, respectively. Our target prices remain $14 and $18 for the intermediate- and long-term, respectively. We reiterate our 1-1, Outperformer rating on the stock for investors with aggressive risk suitability. Annual Dividend: - PE FY 01E: NM Yield: - PE FY 02E: 44.7x 2000 Bk. Value/sh: $0.86 52-WK Range: $11.84-$0.44 2000 ROC: NM 2000 Cash flow/sh: ($1.32) Inst. Hldgs: 25.1% 5yr est.EPS ann. Growth rate: NM Insider Hldgs: 46.5% Shares Outstanding (Mil): 22.4 Next Reporting Date (est): Nov. 13 Market Cap (Mil): $190.4 Year End: Dec. 31 Float (Mil): 8.2 EPS($)** Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Consensus 2000A (0.46) (0.61) (0.15) (0.08) ($1.29) NE 2001E (0.05)A (0.08)A (0.06) 0.01 ($0.19) NE 2002E (0.01) 0.00 0.06 0.14 $0.19 NE 2003E - - - - $0.80 NE 2004E - - - - $1.35 NE 2005E - - - - $1.38 NE 2006E - - - - $1.57 NE **Estimates may not add due to rounding. Rev($00) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2000A 7,519 5,826 7,350 6,390 $27,085 2001E 7,108A 5,557A 6,050 7,650 $26,365 2002E 7,500 8,500 11,000 14,750 $41,750 2003E - - - - $65,710 2004E - - - - $88,348 2005E - - - - $102,389 2006E - - - - $127,811 COMPANY DESCRIPTION Women First HealthCare, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company, founded in 1996, whose primary focus is to provide pharmaceutical and lifestyle products for midlife women and to help these women and their clinicians make informed choices concerning appropriate health care. The company is specifically targeted toward women age 40 and over to facilitate their transition from perimenopause through postmenopause. With headquarters in San Diego, California, the company employs 140 people, including 60 sales specialists. |