OCT 4 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - pending CLASS 1 SELL
SPX - pending CLASS 1 SELL
OEX - pending CLASS 1 SELL
NAZ - CLASS 2 SELL
NDX - CLASS 2 SELL
VIX - PENDING NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL(inverse to market)
Yesterday was the end of the WINDOW for the CLASS 1 SELL signals on the DOW/SPX/OEX. The DOW/SPX/OEX closed near their highs which is a hint of a NEGATED CLASS 1 SIGNAL. The first confirmation of a NEGATED SIGNAL would occur if those indices are up and close at/near their intraday highs. If a DOJI/SPINNING TOP occurs today, even if those indices are up, that would not confirm the possible NEGATED SIGNAL.
If the NAZ/NDX is up today, I could possibly get a CLASS 1 SELL. And as mentioned often, a closing signal is more reliable than a intraday signal.
For the longer-term, Im starting to get more bullish on the market and suspecting that an important bottom may have been set or is close to being set, in case of a retest.
Recently, MSFT formed an imperfect 3-WHITE SOLDIER, first noticed by JUSTA, which worked well. Not that there won't be some sort of a pullback in MSFT, but I feel that the 3-SOLDIER has bullish effects that could linger beyond the immediate rally. So this could be a positive for the NAZ/NDX since MSFT is its largest component.
The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs did improve yesterday slightly - not bad, not great, but supportive of yesterdays rally. The volume on the NAZ was strong, which supported the rally.
As positive as this recent rally has been, its fair to assume that some of yesterdays rally was assisted by a short-squeeze. Now the question is the follow-thru, and the strength/weakness of the forthcoming short-term pullback.
Noticed that the volume in the NYSE slowed down some. As noted by the charts PAUL has posted, rising wedges(bearish) are forming on the DOW/SPX/OEX. Yesterdays lower volume is in line with those rising wedges, so those wedges are hints that some sort of a pullback in the DOW/SPX/OEX could occur.
I still have my hedged position in my personal mutual fund account, but in our website account we are still strickly long. I still have the JAN 04 QQQ 25 LEAPS. They are now up about 20% so I may sell near-term calls on them today or tomorrow. |
