GST, don't believe everything you hear on CNBC. ;-)
Maybe they were talking about announced layoffs, not non-farm payrolls.
Just checked the BLS and the real numbers are not that big.
146.142.4.24
Using "not seasonally adjusted" numbers, non-farm payrolls have shrunk by 1,066,000 from year end 2000 thru August. Add September's 109k for 1,175,000 YTD. We would need to lose 275k per month for the next 3 months to hit your number.
Seasonally adjusted, BTW, YTD-August was a net loss of only 36k jobs.
Lastly, in 2000, the change from August-December was +530k SA and +1,597k NSA. Looks like a pretty strong seasonal tendency to reverse as sharply as you suggest.
But, we'll see.
Bob |
