Good News Frank,
That is if you like your Alberta winters cold. Remember my preliminary forecast?:
To:isopatch who wrote (772)
From: Roebear Tuesday, Aug 28, 2001 2:56 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 2418
isopatch,
Well, if it snows enough, we may be able to walk over those 20 foot walls:
My preliminary forecast for this winter indicates a cold one is in store for the eastern half of the nation, with heavy snows likely along the eastern seaboard. Colder than last winter with an early onset likely.
Climate Prediction Center data indicating another warm winter for Alberta, don't know if I concur on that yet, that's stretching my prediction area a bit.
****
Well, it seems the La Nina is very weak to non existent and we may cycle to a weak EL Nino by spring.
Considering all the plus factors we have for a cold winter in the NE AND NC states, it appears Canada may have a colder than normal winter this year in your locale.
The following article from Joe D'Aleo sums it up nicely with graphs etc. which I don't have the software to put up on this site (and never bothered to get a web site for it).
It's easier to put Joe's article up, since most of the stuff he follows I follow also, ggg:
intellicast.com
I will note that following natural observations put me ahead a bit on the forecast for my area. As noted in the above post, at the time, the Climate Prediction Center was still calling for a mild winter in Alberta, haven't checked CPC lately, but that prediction of theirs most likely was wrong.
My natural observation system indicates the the above Winter Outlook by Joe D'Aleo is right on track for this winter, with one exception in March, and likely the long term multi winter bias is toward cold negative NAO winters. November is the trickiest month for me, I can only say I have a bias toward colder than normal without much conviction. I was looking for early onset of winter here in my locale, but recent indications of mine leave me uncertain if we will have that in early or late month. Tend to believe we will have both with a warm "Indian Summer" spell in mid month November.
After that it is likely this winter will rival that real nasty cold winter of 95-96 here in the Mid Atlantic and NortEast US. I would give this a high confidence level, since the weather indicators I follow (that Joe outlines very nicely in his article) are in perfect alignment with my natural indicators. In fact, I will give this forecast my highest confidence level to date....
Joe's graphs seem to indicate a long lasting winter, tending to be below normal cold through March. My indications are for a sudden break to normal/above normal temps for mid month, likely around March 21st.
If this forecast holds through the March time period, which I believe it will, then I already have some clues for the next year's winter forecast.
I also have some indications for some large snowstorms, but nothing I can date yet.
No wonder IsoClaus showed up here already, lol!
Best Regards,
Roebear |
