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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Suresh who wrote (34658)	10/5/2001 9:52:03 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) of 68216

Hi Suresh, I still have some QCOM in my core portfolio from years ago. It looks like their technology will gain broader acceptance as we transition to 3G. It got downgraded today based on its near term prospects, but I expect it will do well over the long term. It might be worth while selling puts if your are building a position gradually, as it looks vunerable to 35 on the chart. Interesting, the option table indicates a moajority of people think it will close near to 50 by option expiration. askresearch.com Can you talk a little more about your thinking about why you think the market will be higher by April next year? Right now I see a recession coming down the pipe. I think we get one more rally as the US response to the Sept 11 attack plays out, but over the next few months I still see downward pressure. The anticipation of the response should put a floor on the market till the end of the year, but after that unless the stimulus package kicks in I don't see any significant upside. As we approach the middle of 2002 we might rally in anticipation of the next upgrade cycle in computers and re-news demand for connectivity, but it is still too early to tell. This is all based on the assumption that most people upgraded in 1999 for Y2K and will write off their equipment after 3 years. Given that some semiconductor fabs are at 40 percent capacity, by definition we are in a recession. You mentioned pent up demand, where do you see it coming from or are you assuming we are a trough production levels? You know I like to work out most likely scenarios, given the quickly shifting markets and economic conditions it is timely to work out new macro ones. If you believe in 7 year economic cycles and the last one ended in 2000, then it will be mid-2004 before we see a significant turn around. Everyone is welcome to participate in this discussion, as the factors are quite complex.

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