Guree, I have to say that Mr Barton has been pretty accurate in his forecasting over the years, unlike many of the gold "authorities" whom you refer to. Furthermore, he always gives technical explanations for his opinion.
And he says now, if the Dow doesn't go up above 9200 it will fall back sharply and, even if it does, there is still a likelihood of a fall to 5000-6000. So, that's serious stuff.
I have to remind you that the PE on the S&P is still well over 20, probably near 30, and that, historically, the PE on the S&P has fallen to 10-12 at the bottom of previous bear markets. So, it is not ridiculous to believe that further falls could be ahead. In fact, that is the opinion of Shiller, in his book, "Irrational Exuberance". Unless, of course, because of all the money printing and hype, people do not consider this to be a bear market!!
For my money, I would rather bet on Barton than on Abby Joseph Cohen who, a few months ago, when the Dow was about 11,000, said it would hit 15,000 this year. In fact, it nearly hit half that and may still.
By the way, Barton doesn't charge for his services nor does he play on people's fears, unlike our uncle's friends at LeadOstrich. Nor, for what it's worth, have I any vested interest in his predictions. In fact, I am virtually fully invested. Furthermore, I can't say whether he's short or not -- how could anyone know that? But, so what if he is. He can't move the market. |
