MSFT has a marvelous marketing machine. If you look at their OS history, though, there have been only a few significant technology milestones:
Windows 3.1 - first version of Windows that is stable and functional enough to be used in a business environment.
Windows 95 - first true 32 bit version, significantly easier to program against than 16 bit and, therefore, much more stable.
Windows NT 4.x - first MSFT OS version stable and functional enough to be used as a true server OS.
and now:
Windows XP - recombination of the desktop and server branches. Combines usability and compatibility of Windows 9x with stability and server functionality of NT.
I agree that it is sometimes hard to get the straight scoop from MSFT. But, I believe that XP over the next two years will be compelling enough to result in widespread, near universal upgrade, as software suppliers realize large savings in development and support. Software vendors will finally have the compelling argument to force customers to upgrade, as they did with Windows 95. The upgrade curve from Windows 3.1 to 95 was extremely steep.
Also during this period, memory producers will benefit as well as box makers. XP requires a minimum of 192 Mbytes of memory; that means that you'll barely be happy with 256, and most will opt for 512. Many will look at their current P2/P3s, and toss them rather than try to upgrade.
MSFT will attempt to accelerate this transition by dropping support for desktop and enterprise products on older OSs. They will coerce their partners to do the same. Once they get critical mass, the rest will follow because of business necessity: if your competitor reduces their support matrix by 5x, you'll need to also to remain competitive. |
