A discussion of Pakistan and Nukes
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Message 8880 of 8886
Re: War Readiness
jjkozub
(67/M/Maryland)
10/5/01 4:05 pm
Sotiris. Do you consider the likely of a little talked about fear of the fundamentalists of Pakistan moliblizing the masses (esp. those Baluchistan) to overthrow the Pakistan military government, and thereby gain control of Pakistan's small stock of nuclear weapons? What a scenario! The Dr. Strangelove satire looks tame by comparison.
JJK
Message 8881 of 8886
Re: War Readiness
sotiris_k1
(32/M) 10/5/01 4:44 pm
You are right that would be quite a development. I dont think that this is very easy to happen as long as Pakistan is not uniformely against the United states. First of all i think their arsenal is probably limited to 1-2 bombs of questionable effectiveness. Of course this will change with time. But i have the impression from having witnessed so many physicists from pakistan that the reason Pakistan is having an arsenal is because of too many prominent theoretical physicists in the past and present from this country. I have even used some of them in my work and what an irony 2 months before the attack i was actually talking on the phone with one of them (Khursheed Khan)in Karatchi who worked with Roger Penrose in London in the late 60s early 70s when i was born. That professor was actually happy to communicate over the phone with a physicist from Stanford halfway around the planet and eager to help me with copies of his early work and notes he had. Why am i referring to this? Well simply to point to the fact that those responsible for the nuclear program are likely to have been educated in the west and are now back home in local leading institutions and have very mild or even friendly sentiments towards the US. Another famous nobel guy that people might know is Abdus Salam responsible for the electroweak theory or the Standard Model together with americans Weinberg and Glashow. Those are all very intelligent and peaceful people. Seems to me the Pakistan society is a struggle between those that are prominent , educated abroad and eager to help their country emerge as a power and those that are heavily religious and willing to express their disaprovement of the west. I think the nuclear program is controlled by the first guys who have simply helped their country strengthen its place by developping a nuclear program. The program is not extensive enough yet to not require the participation of leading physicists. Thats not the case anymore when you have manufuctured say 10 bombs waiting ina banker, consider pakistan like the us program in 1945-46) If a superpower has a nuclear program who is to say to a smaller country not to obtain one. It is hypocritical. It is also dangerous of course because a superpower will always have enough to lose to never be trully willing to apply its arsenal in reality. Once you open the pandora's box a lot can happen. Lets not forget that chemical and biological weapon research has had a good early rise in the western countries as well. We are more like in a control and containment phase now but we are also responsible for having the problem to begin with.
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Message 8882 of 8886 Reply
Re: War Readiness
sotiris_k1
(32/M) 10/5/01 4:48 pm
continued
I think as long Pakistan is not uniformely opposed to the west there is little to worry. Of course if the situation were to change due to some holly war global movement it would be another story but i think if we are careful we cannot really get there , not with so many global evidence that Bin Laden and his partners are really way too guilty for a long time. I think Pakistan will prove a reliable ally down the road especially if certain long term agreements reinforce the deal.
Incidentally there is little one country can do with a small range nuclear weapon. You can only use it as a threat to a neighbour of medium power arsenal like India. Unless this weapon is of small scale easy to transfer type and detection safe to transfer near a large city its of little power to the one that has it if its in very limited numbers 1-2-3. Assuming Pakistan was willing to use a weapon of this type against nearby us forces it would be really meaningless as a power move. Because it would mean the end of that country down the road. I mean Bin Laden and others are not really a geographical subset of middle east. They dont stand to lose too much. A well defined country is a very different story. I think the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan is more like a war game of pride between Pakistan and India.
The real trouble would probably originate from small range small size nuclear bombs eg "back pack bombs". I wonder how many of these are really available worldwide and who is controlling them.
Look in principle one could detonate a nuclear device in any american port inside a tanker or other commercial ship bringing oil or taking grain or whatever you can imagine . How can you control everything? Maybe from space one can localize nuclear devices unless very well shielded due to their radiation but its fairly easy to cover them . You really dont have to get a tourist bring one in a simple airtrip to united states. There are other ways that are not easily controllable like the one i mentioned above.
Too much to worry about in modern world. Thats why prevention is the mother of all our hopes. You really dont want to have too many pissed off people agaisnt united states all over the planet. Trust me on this.
Message 8885 of 8886
Re: War Readiness
jjkozub
(67/M/Maryland) 10/6/01 1:27 am
Sotiris: Your allusion is 100% correct that <<... the Pakistan society is a struggle between those that are prominent , educated abroad and eager to help their country emerge as a power and those that are heavily religious and willing to express their disaprovement of the west.>> That includes former leaders such as Mrs. Bhutto, and senior military officials, writers, etc...This is the case in everyone of the 40+ countries (each feudal to some degree) which I have visited in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. But they are so few modernizing elites in such countries that they can remain in power only by force (even with make believe elections as in Egypt and Jordan), and would be overwhelmed in the event of mass uprising (as happened in Iran in 1979 when the Shah was expelled). Others, such as Turkey (which has the largest % and number of modernizing elites in West Asia), India and Sri Lanka in S. Asia, have democratic governments with various degrees of instability. |
