TGPTNDR, Re: "In how much of what you do could you tell the difference, in accomplishment, over the course of an hour or day, between a PIII-500 and a PIII-1G?"
Studies show that 75% of the current PC user base includes users that have systems at or below 500MHz. A lot of these people are going to want to take advantage of the following:
Windows XP
Office XP
MP3 Encoding/Sound Editing
DVD Encoding/Movie Editing
CD/DVD Recording
New Games
Broadband Internet
Real Time 3D Content
Greater Multitasking Environments
High Speed Interfaces (USB-2, Firewire)
And these are just off the top of my head.
For many of these people, 500MHz machines may just barely offer acceptable performance on all of the above list. For others, 500MHz is just a little too sluggish. But then again, that's 500MHz.
What about 400MHz?
What about 300MHz?
What about 200MHz?
What about 100MHz?
There are people that still have these ancient machines. Wouldn't even a 1.5GHz Pentium 4 with SDRAM offer a huge advantage for these people? They are currently selling for under $1000, even at Best Buy, and when these users get home, plug it in, and start running Windows XP, DVD movies, and broadband Internet, all they will notice is a world of better performance!
Also, businesses have regular 2, 3, or 4 year upgrade cycles, depending on the level of computing power they regularly need.
2 years ago, October 1999, Intel launched the Pentium III 750MHz CPU for $803. Meanwhile, the Pentium III 600MHz Coppermine was also launched at $455. I assume most businesses requiring heavy workloads upgraded to CPUs between 600MHz and 750MHz. Today, heavy workloads can easily require faster processors. I would guess that Intel is pushing 1.6GHz, 1.8GHz, and 2.0GHz Pentium 4 chips with RDRAM and SDRAM into corporate businesses. With performance improvements relative to these business's prior processors, I'd guess that most businesses would be willing for the upgrade, especially since the prices on these processors is effectively 1/4 the price of their previous upgrades, and probably 1/2 the price of their previous system prices.
Approximately 3 years ago, August 1998, Intel launched the 450MHz Pentium II for $669. Businesses requiring medium sized workloads probably bought in the area of Pentium II 300MHz chips to the brand new Pentium II 450MHz chips. These medium level workloads might include a fair amount of Office applications, with the occasional memory intensive application that sucks down system resources and CPU cycles. For these businesses, 300MHz-450MHz is not enough. An upgrade to even a 1.6GHz Pentium 4 would offer a lot of performance.
Approximately 4 years ago, May 1997, Intel had launched the 300MHz Pentium II for $1981. I assume most businesses went for the less expensive 233MHz or 266MHz Pentium II chips, or a 200MHz Pentium Pro. These 4-year cycle businesses require light workloads like word processing, excel datasheets, and email. However, even Windows NT begins to get sluggish on these machines. Some of these businesses are now thinking of upgrading to Windows 2000 or Windows XP, and want the newest versions of their Office applications, being that they are still using the 1997 or 1995 varieties. An upgrade to even a Pentium 4 with SDRAM system gives them that much more headroom for the future.
So in terms of what people "need", I'd say that most people could use a new system these days, as newer applications become available, and even businesses on regular upgrade cycles can make the argument for faster computers. 75% of the market is just waiting out there, and eventually they will be convinced they need to upgrade. With the 9/11 attacks and the already weak economy, many consumers and businesses have probably put off their purchases for a while, but eventually they won't want to put it off much longer. The explosion in demand that occurs when all these people do decide to upgrade is what Intel is waiting for. AMD will also likely get the overspill from this explosion, but the question is, when will it occur? The answer to this question, of course, is better left to another discussion.
wanna_bmw |
