11,000 is not a huge number, and most of those probably not be deployed in the US. They would have to speak English to be effective, and carry passports from countries that do not ring alarm bells at immigration counters, and have some kind of cover. I would guess that many of those 11,000 are more soldiers than terrorists as we understand the word. They are off fighting in their own countries: we have some in the Philippines, and there are many in Indonesia. There must be thousands in Africa. The ones sent to the US or Europe would be the elite, a relatively small number.
The current situation presents a bit of a challenge for whoever is running bin Laden's show in the US. Strategically, they need to strike in response to the US move against Afghanistan. They have to do something spectacular, lest it seem an anticlimax. Tactically, this is the worst time for them to move: their target is alert and at peak vigilance.
My guess is that they will not be thinking of cropdusters full of anthrax, or similar devices. The probability of getting caught would be too high. I also don't think there's a nuclear threat: if they had that capacity, they'd have used it already. I would guess that they would fall back on the tried and true: car or truck bombs. Easier to make, less training needed on the part of the terrorist, much harder to detect and stop. I also don't think they will aim at NY, DC, or LA. They've done that. Their aim is maximum terror and maximum impact with minimum risk, and I think the best way for them to achieve that would be a number of truck bomb attacks, as close to simultaneous as they can manage, in crowded parts of medium-sized cities across heartland America. Texas would certainly be a target, but not the only one. They've done capitalism and the military, the next logical targets are mom and apple pie. That would have symbolism equal to the WTC, though the toll would be much smaller, and certainly would spread real terror. It would also be very difficult to detect or prevent.
I hope they don't do it. But that is my guess. |
