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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: que seria who wrote (9167)	10/8/2001 2:46:59 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 23153

Que seria, you're right and I mis-eyeballed the chart stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyymy[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lf!Lc20] Looks more like SOX gave up 2 years, not 3. I'm not a deep thinker and my faith comes mainly from observing the chip cycle AND the semi equipment cycle and assuming they repeat. Both have disappointed this year. The equipment orders have been flat for 5 months - unprecedented since Jan. 1995 when the chart started. I simply think SEMI orders should start moving up soon now. When they do, stocks like AMAT always have gone up steadily.[since Jan. 1995] suite101.com But ww chip sales drive SEMI equipment orders and those chip sales have been declining, although a little less in August. suite101.com Maybe we'll have another bad data month [Sept SEMI data comes around Oct 20.], but then it should improve. Chip makers need to plan fabs years ahead. BTW, historically Sept has been the low for SEMI btb [may not mean much this year] suite101.com When chip sales bottom, SOX should have seen its bottom before that. Jim_p asked me about the SOX bottom and I answered without hedging because I hate weasel words. I may be wrong. Gottfried PS: see how AMAT went up last 2 cycles after SEMI orders reversed up? suite101.com suite101.com

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