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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (47678)	10/8/2001 4:48:46 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Thomas, Maybe the reason that valuation keeps coming up, but only in waves, is that, as a group (as opposed to those individuals who are happy with their own particular rules), we have yet to make enough progress to know how to use it on a consistent basis. So, something stimulates the discussion, it goes on for while, and then it fades. I perceive a second issue: the difference between techniques of valuation and applications of valuation. We have had a number of good discussions on the mechanics or techniques of valuation. I have learned much in those threads. However, in today's environment even those techniques are of limited value. With the amount of uncertainty in earnings and growth, how do you value companies with superior competitive positions like Qualcomm and Siebel? Even if we do come to an understanding of valuation, what do we do with that knowledge? Is there a good buying point? Is there a meaningful 'don't buy' point? At what point should you take some profits if you assess a company's stock as overvalued? I understand the 'techniques' of valuation but I am much less certain of the applications. Paul

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