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Technology Stocks : Amati - MAIN THREAD

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To: Marlon Halpern who wrote (608)	7/9/1996 2:27:00 PM
From: fedhead	of 700

I don't expect the telcos to be in any hurry to deploy ADSL. Unless the cable companies start deploying cable modems and gaining significant market penetration the telcos have absolutely nothing to gain by rapidly deploying ADSL. Think about it providing a 1.5 M to 6 Meg pipe to the homes threatens their voice franchise. Let us say they do provide ADSL to the homes, whats stopping some ISP like AOL, PSI net using some of that bandwidth for high quality voice and the rest for data. Granted that can be done with ISDN (by using one of the B channels for voice and the other for data) but that reduces the data bandwidth. With ADSL an ISP can provide both voice and data at high quality. I don't think the telcos are to keen on that. If they are forced to deploy ADSL (due to competition from cable) they will be forced to get into the ISP business. (and compete with the PSI nets , AOLs of the world) This is already happening. Till that time the telcos will want to milk their voice franchise for what it is worth. I don't think ASND and other ISDN players have anything to worry about in the forseeable future. Its going to be a while before ADSL makes any money .

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